Prosperous New Year for Bears ??

A doji followed by a small red candle, followed by a shooting star, after a upmove. Plus, MacdH seems at its peak, while Stochastics has given a negative divergence on Nifty fut EOD chart... too many indications to a correction.

On weekly charts, Momentum indicators Rsi, Stochastics and MacdH, all have given positive divergences. But, the price candle is a small green doji with a low of 5155.

On the other hand, Bank Nifty has almost made a gravestone doji candle on its EOD charts, suggesting weakness.

To sum it all, I believe that we may witness a correction in the coming session. Below 5198, Nifty may tank further down to its 5 EMA at 5162. However, if Nifty breaches the low of prev weeks candle at 5155, we may further see a bear rally upto 5138 or further down.

Trading with negative bias will be easier. A very happy New Year and Happy Trading !!




Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Intraday view

Nifty Dec fut corrected nearly 50 pts. from high of 5198 of the day, to make a low of 5155.

Individually some constituent of Nifty is showing weakness on the daily charts, whereas some showing strenght. It is a little difficult to decide the trend for the coming session. However, banking stocks seem to be in a buy/accumulating mode.

I believe, on intraday basis, Nifty may test, 5136 below, 5161. However, upside it may test 5198-5224, above 5179. Upside seems more likely.

Happy Trading !!



Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Perfect New Years eve for the bulls....

After a long vacation, the week has begun with Nifty Dec series confirming the bullish engulfing pattern on weekly charts, by breaching the high of the prev. weeks candle of 5210, indicating a bull rally for the coming sessions. Momentum indicators RSI has given a positive divergence, MacdH and Stochastics in the positive terrain on weekly basis.

On the daily charts, MacdH is showing first sign of strength, suggesting a continuation of uptrend. RSI, stochastics already in the positive terrain.

However, on EOD Nifty has formed a Doji which suggests undecisiveness of the trend. Also, the price candle of Nifty Dec fut is above its 5 EMA, which is at 5136 approx. On intraday basis, Nifty is in the highly overbought region, suggesting that we may witmess a healthy correction in the coming session on intraday basis. I believe that Nifty should retrace back to its 5 EMA at 5136 once before continuing with the bull rally.

Below 5195, Nifty may test 5138 on intraday basis. On the upside, above 5215, Nifty may test 5246.

Trading in Nifty with a negative bias would be more comfortable after a series of bullish green candles seen in the prev week.

I rest my views... Happy Trading !!










Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Negative crossover ...

Nifty Dec Fut, on its EOD formed a Doji today, which suggests an indecisiveness of the trend. Stohastics and MacdH suggest a likely exhaustion of the downtrend or continuity of consolidation.

However, 5 and 20 EMA have given a negative divergence on daily chart. This crossover will confirm its potency only if Nifty manages to breach todays low of 5009 in the coming session.

In the wake of food prices inflation nearing a record 20% mark for the week, and weak global cues, after the Federal Reserve indicated it would start pulling back some emergency supports as the economy improves, I believe that the coming session will witness an importunate selling pressure by the bears.

The levels that we can look out for are, below 5038, Nifty may test 5012-4975. On the upside, above 5040, it may test 5071-5103 levels.

Trade safe ... Happy trading !!






Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Winter Blues !!

Nifty Dec fut tanked a good 90 pts from its prev close of 5107 to make a low of 5017. It broke a major support of 5051, which was its prev candle low on weekly charts, confirming a negative trend. After making tweezer tops on weekly basis, Nifty has managed to break the low of last weeks candle, giving rise to pessimism.

On daily chart, Rsi, stochastics, macdh, all momentum indicators have given negative crossovers. On weekly basis as well, Rsi, stochastics given negative divergences.

The price action as well as indicators are very much in synch suggesting a bearish trend for the upcoming sessions.

A month long trendline may give some support at 5001 levels. But, considering the fact that all momentum indicators suggesting weakness in the mkt, I believe that bears will break this support effortlessly in the coming session.

I believe the levels to watch out for in the coming session are, below 5071, Nifty may test 5001-4965. However, on the upside, above 5075, we may witness some profit booking and Nifty may test 5110-5123.

I rest my views here ... Happy trading !!



Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

The Big "R"

Nifty shedded a good 85 pts from its high of 5135 today. Reason, I believe was, that Reliance Ind. bonus shares were credited over the weekend and were admitted to trading today. And we witnessed heavy profit booking in it.

Cummins India looks very promising technically. It has consistently made higher highs and higher lows on EOD charts since 13/7/09, when it first brokeout into a rally.

Its Dec Fut at 405, has closed above its prev close, suggesting a continuity in the bull run. The daily momentum indicator Rsi and Stochastics have given positive divergences, with MacdH trading in the positive territory. The volumes of the stock has surged confirming the trend. Its near term target should be 440-454.

On weekly charts, Cummins is trading above its prev. weeks high suggesting a confirmation of the bullish trend.

Coming back to Nifty has closed at 5069, below its prev days low of 5078, suggesting weakness. The confirmation comes thru the daily momentum indicators, Rsi almost on the verge of giving a negative crossover, Stochastics and MacdH already in the negative terrain.

On the upside Nifty may test 5107, above 5086.

However, almost all individual consituents of Nifty are neutral to bearish on EOD charts, hence flipside is more likely and comfortable to trade for the coming session. The downside targets would be, below 5081, Nifty may test 5055-5030.

Trade well .... Happy Trading !!




Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Clouded directions !!

Fridays session witnessed a correction of 55 pts from its prev. close of 5132. Nifty Dec opened gap down, recovered 80 pts., and further, tanked to make a low of 5078. It was a volatile trading session.

The price action has shown signs of correction, however, the daily momentum indicators Rsi and MacdH are still showing signs of strength. Stochastics, on the other hand, has given a negative divergence suggesting weakness.

On Intraday, hourly chart of Nifty has formed a doji above its 200 EMA, followed by a large green candle breaching the high of prev. candle, suggesting bullishness for the first session of trade in the coming week.

To summarise, it seems like on Monday, we may witness a whipsaw trading session because of the mismatched direction of the indicators and price action. If Nifty manages to trade convincingly above 5125, it may test 5156-5188 levels. On the flipside, if Nifty breaks 5120, it may test 5088-5065 levels.

Happy Trading !!




Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

A Cozy Dec. in Dalal Street

Nifty Spot today made a green morubozu candle, wherein open=low and close=high, suggesting a bullish trend.

The daily momentum indicators, Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH, all given a positive divergence. Individual derivative stocks looking extremely bullish on EOD charts.

All signals are extremely positive, and although Nifty is trading in the high resistance zone, it seems like Nifty will manage to breakout into a bull rally.

However, on intraday charts, Nifty seems to be trading in the highly oversold zone, which suggests that we may witness some correction on intraday levels. Below 5122, on intraday basis, Nifty Dec may correct to 5100.

Above 5134, Nifty may witness 5163-5194 on intraday.

I rest my views here... Trade well !!!




Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

India Shining ...

What came in as a pleasantly surprising news was the GDP data today. At 7.9%, it was way above street expectation of 6.1%, fuelling optimism.

Individually, all constituents of Nifty Derivatives is looking from neutral to bullish. On EOD charts, Nifty Dec is looking bullish, with daily momentum indicators looking like ready for a trend change.

However, yet to confirm an uptrend, Nifty has to trade above todays weighted avg of 5030 on a closing basis. Above 5030, the upside target would be 5072-5106. On the downside, below 5028, Nifty can test 4995-4965.

With the daily momentum indicators still in the negative zone, and the price action in the positive terrain, it is a little too early to predict the trend of the markets. So far, am biased to longs.

Trade well !!





Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Dubai to Dalal Street.

In the wake of the Dubai default fears, Nifty Dec series, on friday opened gap down at 4918, almost a 100 pts down from its prev days close at 5005. The day saw a low of 4801, another 100 pts down from its open.

However, Nifty recovered 145 pts from its low to close at 4946, above its 50 EMA in the noon session.

On EOD charts, the 3 and 13 EMA have given a negative divergence. Daily Momentum indicators, Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH have all given a negative intersection. Total volume on Nifty was 4.26 cr. almost double than the prev. days volume. Any closing below 4914, which is 50 EMA, will be a confirmation of downtrend.

Markets will remain volatile and rumour sentive in the coming week. Below, 4801, Nifty may test 4763, which is 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the current impulse wave.

Above, 4960, it may test 4990 levels, which is 200 EMA on 30 mins intraday chart. Trading with a negative bias will be more comfortable, I believe.

Happy Trading !!






Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Dubai debt bubble ....

World over today stock exchanges felt tremors on concern over the Dubai debt crisis, and Dalal Street was not spared either.

The "bad" news was, on Wednesday 25/11/2009, the govt of Dubai announced that it will ask the lendors of one of its major flagship firm, Dubai World; a state-run co. venturing into a no. of businesses including realty, logistics, and its realty subsidiary Nakheel, for a "standstill" on estimated debt of around 80 billion dollars, while it restructures the co.

Abu Dhabi, Dubais oil rich neighbour had earlier bailed out the cos debt to the tune of 15 billion dollars approx. via indirect routes of 2 of its major banks. Today, it has commented that it will aid on a "pick and choose" basis, which means that any sort of blanket assistance from Abu Dhabi is unlikely.

Many Indian cos have direct or indirect exposure to Dubai. The ones which do not have, will also be affected because of shaky investor confidence. MSCI index on friday fell a record 4% confirming that Indian Stock markets will not go unaffected in case of a crisis.

Talking about our economy as a whole, a lot of Indians work in Dubai. Confirmation of a crisis may lead to severe job cuts, obviously, also affecting the inward remmitances.

Unless a bail-out, another bubble seems to be on the verge of bursting. Overall, it will be a very shaky week ahead, news and rumour sensitive...

I rest my views here ... Trade safe !!




(Sources: My Iris, The Mint, DNA Money)

Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Bharat Forgings - A promising buy candidate

It was an inside day for Spot Nifty, wherein, neither did Nifty breach prev days high of 5113, nor it managed to break its prev days low of 5052. However, Nifty Nov fut. breached the prev days low of 5068 to make a day low of 5050.

For intraday, one can go short below 5070, for a tgt of 5050-5010. Trading with a negative bias seems like a more comfortable idea for tomorrow. However, the intraday momentum indicators alongwith price action will confirm the direction of trade.

On weekly basis, Nifty is still looking strong. On the downside, Nifty should not correct lower than 4950 levels to remain bullish on weekly charts.

Stock wise, I believe that for the coming trading sessions, bharat forgings should show a good upside. The 3 and 13 EMA have given a positive intersection in the body of its candle, with a surge in volumes. The daily momentum indicators RSI, Stochastics have given postive divergence. MacdH will start trading in positive zone in coming trading sessions as well. Likely target should be 310. On weekly charts as well, Bharat Forg. is showing strength.

I rest my views here... Happy Investing !!





Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Positive Break-out...

Nifty Spot, abv 5066 has given a month long trendline breakout, on Daily charts. Momentum indicators, RSI, Stochastics are in positive terrain. MacdH seems like is all ready to turn in favor of bulls.

On weekly charts, Rsi has given a positive intersection, and MacdH and stochastics are already in positive terrain. The price action having breached prev weeks high of 5079.30 has also confirmed the uptrend. Near term tgt is 5298. Above it, it may test 5500 levels.

Cement Sector namely, ACC, Ambuja, Grasim, along with Reliance inds as well as frontline bank stocks like Icici, Axis bank look promising and will lead the expected rally.

I rest my views ... Happy Trading !!





Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Phyan... ??

Spot Nifty breached prev days low of 5041 and corrected almost 80 pts to make a low of 4963.70. If a fibonacci retracement is taken, from the swing high it made yesterday to the significant low of 4538 made on 3/11/2009, the first level of retracement, which is at approx 76.4% should be at around 4952, which is also the likely low of this week.

However, since most of the Derivative contituents of Nifty are trading in a negative zone, I am inclined to believe that this support may break in coming trading session. If so, Nifty Spot may test a low of 4873, which is 61.8% of the fibonacci retracement, a major support level.

Daily momentum indicators Rsi, MacdH, Stochastics are trading in the negative terrain to confirm the corrective mode.

I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!







Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

On its way up...

Nifty spot made a long legged Doji today on EOD charts. Simply worded, a doji would mean that the bears were strong enough to pull down the market on intraday, but the bulls were stronger to not let the bears win over them, and close higher than the open, though narrowly.

Had this Doji been formed at the bottom of the charts, it would be of higher significance. But in the middle of a rally, I doubt it holds as much importance as the candlestick pattern deserves.

However, on the positive front, MacdH has shown signs of exhaustion, but not weakness. So far, I believe, Nifty is still on a healthy way and very much in uptrend.

I rest my views here... Happy Trading !!





Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Nifty Tales ...

Nifty Fut (Nov series) opened gap up today at 5041 almost 40 pts abv prev close.. Most of the trade session, lacked lustre and was directionless. The range was extremely narrow of just abt 40 pts.

I maintain my view as earlier, that Nifty will either consolidate or correct "mildly" on intraday levels (chances of a major fall are very bleak) because MacdH has shown signs of peaking. Thus, to gain any further strength, on EOD the MacdH ideally must show some sign of exhaustion / negative bar. Once done, I believe Nifty will rally to test its prev. high of 5168. Further, on weekly basis Nifty is strong and also steady. If Nifty maintains the steady growth at the same or higher ROC, this week may see a high of 5190 levels. On the downside, it may test 4950 levels in the week ended 21/11/2009.

I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!







Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Begining of an Impulsive Wave.

With Nifty Spot breaching the high of 11 Nov. which was at 5016.90, though narrowly, it sure seems like its the begining of another impulsive wave.

All the indicators namely, RSI, Stochastics, Williams %, on EOD charts are in the positive terrain, except for MacdH, which indicates that it may be at its peak. Thus, we may witness some kind of narrow range bound trading in the coming week, followed by an upward rally.

On weekly basis, it seems like the indicators are ready to give positive divergences, supported by volumes. More importantly, with the week ending on positive note, a swing low on weekly chart is confirmed, which again suggests a further positive run.

Individual stock-wise, for the coming week, I believe, that ONGC and Axis bank look extremely positive. Above 1211.50, Ongc may test or even surpass its prev swing high of 1277.

Axis bank may test 1035 level once again. Also, if Axis Bank manaages to surpass 1055, which seems very likely as of now looking at its weekly chart, it will give a postive breakout of a 6 month old trendline on the weekly charts. Above 1055, Axis bank may rally upward sharply to test its 52-week high of 1291, or even surpass it.

Happy Investing !!









Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Nifty - No mans land ??

It could have been a day of triumph for the bears, had the IIP data not been anounced at around 12.00 pm. Nifty was on its way down almost 35 pts., when the data was released and Nifty lost its direction. Nifty recovered and went into green, cuz the IIP data at 9.10% was better than the guidance and street expectations which was approx at 7%. However, the higher levels couldnt sustain, and amid high volatility, Nifty tanked 100 pts from its high of 5017 to 4917.

Tomorrow, above 5008, Nifty may test 5039.85 on intraday basis, whereas on the downside, Nifty may test 4853.25 below 4917. With the 5 and 20 EMA given positive crossovers on EOD charts, an upside seems more likely.

Amongst individual stocks, KFA seems promising at 54-55. It is trading above its 200 EMA on daily charts. Its 5, 20 and 50 EMAs have given a positive crossover. On weekly charts, RSI, Stochastics along with MacdH have given positive divergences.

Happy Trading !!





Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

The Going gets SOLOw ...

With Nifty breaching its prev day high each day, it is indeed a continuous uptrend. 3,8 and 13 EMAs have given positive crossovers on EOD charts alongwith the confirmation of the trend.

Almost all indicators namely, MacdH, Rsi, stochastics are very much in the positive mode, suggesting that any reversal seems unlikely.

However, many of the individual constituents of Nifty Derivatives, look weak on EOD charts. Aban, Abb, Balrampur chini, Bharti Artl, BRFL, Educomp, HEro Honda, Maruti, IBrealty, Rcom, Sun Tv ... quite a few of them looking exhausted too.

On intraday, below 4850, my intraday tgt would be 4789.50 Upside, Nifty may face resistance at the 200 EMA on 30 mins, which is at 4896. Though, I would be far more comforatble trading on the short side for intraday tomorow.

I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!






Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

The positive vibes !!

Nifty Spot as well as Nifty Nov fut today, have made a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily charts. After such a sharp downward rally, I believe this hammer suggests that the bulls were able to reject the bears completely plus the bulls were able to push prices even more past the opening price.

Individually, almost all the contituents of Nifty look extremely positive. However, the few stocks that I would be biased to, in the coming trading sessions, are Allahabad Bank, Divislab and Oriental Bank. 3, 8 n 13 alongwith 5 n 20 EMA on daily charts have given a positive crossover in these stocks. This apart, these positive divergences are even more potent because the EMAs have also intersected the price of these stocks.

It sure seems like "happy days are here again" !! Not only one can trade with a positive bias in the coming sessions, also, accumulate stocks for short-term gains.

Signing off on a positive note... Happy Trading !!







Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

The Avalanche

Nifty Nov fut, gave away a little over 200 pts from todays high of 4734, to make a low of 4531.

It breached not just the 4640 levels, but also the 4571 level to confirm the bearish trend on monthly charts as well.

At present Nifty is trading close to the 100 EMA on daily charts. However, it is unlikely that it will find any support there. The next level, below todays low of 4531, to watch out for is 4406, which is at 150 EMA on daily.

Although Nifty is trading in the highly over-sold zone, yet, it would be extremely risky to trade with a positive bias. I believe, that any upside, can only be confirmed after there is any sign of an exhaustion of the downtrend, not earlier.

As of yet, it seems like Nifty is in the correcting mode and will bounce back to rally upside on a longer perspective. But, to accumulate or bottom-fish for stocks, as on date would be a little too risky. I would rather wait for some signs of consolidation before diving in to build up a portfolio.

Happy Trading !!






Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

& the markets tumbled thereafter .............

Friday was nothing short of a black friday, it so seemed to me.

The day began with Nifty Nov fut series, opening at 4845, and giving hopes that the bulls were strong and becoming stronger as the day went on.

But the optimism didnt last long enough. Soon, 200 EMA on intraday chart, acted as a very strong resistance, nifty made its high for the day and supply was feeded in to the bears. The markets started showing its first signs of weakness.

Thereafter, Nifty didnt seem to find a bottom, it broke the prev days low and tanked 55 pts below its prev days low of 4747.80 It was a huge range for the day, a good 170 pts. Aptly, it could be termed as a bears paradise and a bulls nightmare.

So far, I have not witnessed many trading sessions when the bulls were defeated so badly, almost when they were begining to anticipate and enjoy their win. It seemed like the bears had poisoned the champagne that the bulls were to drink in celebration.

Although Nifty is in the highly oversold zone on the daily charts, and also, trading close to the 20 EMA on weekly, which is 4640, Nifty is very weak on weekly as well as monthly basis. However, below 4640, it may sink down further till 4576. On the monthly charts, below 4571, nifty will break the low of prev candle, confirming the downtrend. Also, it may end up making a bearish engulfing candle, which is as the name suggests a confirmation of bearishness.

On the upside ...... Well, as on date, I am a little disorientated as far as the upside is considered. Only if Nifty takes a support and bounces back from its 20 EMA on weekly, I can comfortably think about the upside.

I rest my views here ... Nice weekend !!







Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Ajab Nifty ki Gazab Kahani ....

Nifty Oct series finally expired today, on a low note. On intraday charts, Nifty Oct opened gap down. Prices moved higher, until resistance and supply was found at the high of the day. The bulls' excursion upward was halted and prices ended the day below the open. Were the bulls testing the powers of the bears only to fight them out tomorrow?

A doji on the daily charts followed by an inverted hammer. Is it an indicator of a reversal? The confirmation of the downtrend being in trouble will only come when todays high which is 4826.55, is breached and sustained. Till then, the fate of the warring bears and bulls is not known...

Indeed, it is Ajab Nifty ki Gazab Kahani .... Happy Trading !!




Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

The Deadly Crossover

27th Oct 2009 was a day when the bears butchered everybody who came their way ....

Be it the bulls, hogs or sheep, none were spared by them. A negative crossover on the daily charts soon became a deadly one. Nifty Oct opened below yesterdays low of 4965, at 4960, which acted as a major resistance, and Nifty Oct was unable to surpass it. It tanked almost 125 pts from its high of 4964.

Every minor recovery on intraday charts was followed by an immense selling pressure, thus resulting into a newer low. It made day low of 4838 and closed just about 10 points above it.

Optimistically speaking, Nifty Oct closed near its 50 EMA on daily charts. Thus if it has to find support here, at 50 EMA, it has to trade convincingly above 4859. A close above 4859 tomorrow I believe, will be an indicator to short coverings and fresh longs.

However, on the downside, below 4838, Nifty Oct has support at 4780, which is a swing low on the daily charts, and also a double bottom. Below 4780, I could figure out no support till 4653, which is the 20 EMA on weekly charts.

As some one rightly said, no one can see the right side of the charts. So cant I...

Tomorrow will tell its own tale. Happy Trading !!






Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

A birds eye view on Spot Nifty

Today, was a celebration for bears. Spot Nifty tanked a 100 pts. to make a low of 4968, almost 80 pts. below yesterdays low. It was a continuous trend, well predicted, expected and accepted too, thus, I could see no tug of war between the bears and the bulls. It seemed like bulls took the lost battle in their stride and paved way for bears to enjoy their glorious win !!

The close at 4988 did not leave any room for optimism for tomorrow as well. But yet, why do I have a feeling that my friends, the bears are now tired of carrying their shorts further and are thinking of booking their profits, to make way for the bulls to rule the scenario ....

The maximum down side that I can see from here is another 50 pts. i.e. approx. 4920, from where I believe Nifty will bounce back to 5300 levels in the coming trading sessions.

Confessing candidly, I have no technical reason to support what I say and believe, apart from the fact that spot nifty is trading very close to the 20 EMA, from where it may find some support.

I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!




Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.

Has Bharti Airtel bottomed out at 322.60?

Recently, our Indian stock markets witnessed a very sharp fall in many telecom stocks namely, Rcom, Bharti Airtel, Idea cellular, etc. Various reasons ranging from reduced tariffs to allegations of inflated revenues to cancelled merger deals, were cited as the reason for the fall.

Bharti Airtel, for one, lost about 30% in jus about a fortnight and approx 40% in a months time. Now that it is moving in a consolidated phase, within a narrow range, one question that comes to my mind is "Has Bharti Artl bottomed out at 322.60, which was the swing low on 16/10/2009?"

I think "Yes". Have a couple of reasons to think so. For one, after the steep fall, on daily charts, Bharti seems to be in a consolidated phase. Before any major change in a continuing trend, stocks or derivatives mostly go into a phase of lag, where further losses cease, nor any gains are foreseen.

Second, it formed a doji on 16/10/2009, add to it, it was also swing low. Since then, all trading sessions have witnessed a breach of prev days high, a fall in volumes from where the down fall began, which according to me implies that bears have stopped shorting further followed by a marginal increase in volume which I believe is an indicator of short coverings as well as new longs. All compiled suggest a positive trend in the making.

Also, I believe, that Bharti Artl, on a weekly basis, is trading very close to a year long trendline as well as its 200 DMA, which may act as a strong support. This apart, on weekly charts, the MACDh suggests an exhaustion of the down move.

Thus I conclude, if I have to go long in Bharti, my near term tgt for it would be 388.85 with a stop loss placed at 318.25

Happy Trading !!








Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.