This evening, one of my friends cum fellow trader, Parasuram Ramaswamy (PR) cross checked the statistics on Nifty and noted that the year 2008 I mentioned in my prev post as a D year was actually a U year. Indeed it was an upside year. I wish to correct the same now, point 8 onwards :
8. The year 2008 and 2009 gained 894 and 410 points respectively. Year 2009 however still remains the year of lowest gain so far, a meagre 7.91%, from Oct to Jan.
9. Now the matrix is D-U-D-12U-??? With this matrix, I believe that the year 2010 is likely to be a U year again.
10. From 1995 to 2006, year 2006 was a year of minimum gain, and the next year 2007 we witnessed the maximum upside so far i.e. 1520 pts / 48.29% approx. from a low of 4837 in the first week of Oct to 6357 in the second week of Jan.
11. In 2009 Nifty rallied only 7.91%. Will it continue to respect the earlier trend of a maximum following a minimum remains to be seen.
12. Thus I can now conclude (please take note of the P.N. here) that Jan 2011 may witness 8600 or more (approx. 40% from the low of first week) if all the logic and pattern made so far is respected.
P.N. Thank you PR for bailing me out of the perplexity wrt to the trend of the markets this coming New Year.
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Empirical Study on Nifty for the period Oct - Jan (1995-2009 and beyond)
With Nifty respecting its trend of logical visions so far, I continue with my empirical study, this time for the quarter Oct to Jan for the past 15 years. The observation and conclusion, however, goes beyond 2010 this time. I present the same below :
1. This time the study gets divided into 2 parts - a) oct - nov/dec (where on certain years nifty retraced in mid period), and b) oct - jan ( every year since 1995)
2. In the period Oct - Nov (first week), Nifty retraced/tanked in 1997-1998-1999-2002-2005-2009-??. Here, if I check the logical pattern of D, it is 3D every year till 1999, 2D every 3rd year, 1D 4th year in 2009 ... does that mean 0D in 5th year i.e. 2015 ? If so, we can conclude that Nov 2010 will see no retracement if Nifty continues to respect logical pattern. However, there was neither any significant upside during this period on the U years. Thus, Nifty should be sluggish this year too.
3. From the above, we can also conclude that Nifty will not retrace during this period for another 5 years or more ... a non-imperative observation as on date.
4. Coming to the Oct - Jan period, 1995 (Oct.'95 - Jan.'96) was a D year where Nifty retraced 22% approx. from high of 1044 in first week of Oct.
5. The next year 1996 was a U, where Nifty rallied 188 points approx from 898 low in Oct first week.
6. Year 1997, we witnessed a D again, this time Nifty tanked 13.67% from a high of 1192 in Oct end to 1029 in Jan first week.
7. 1998 onwards, every year for the next 10 years, Nifty rallied during this period. The maximum upside so far was in 2007 when it gained 48.29% from a low of 4837 in Oct 2007 to 6357 in Jan 2010. To be noted here, is that this was the all-time high on Nifty till date.
8. In the year 2008, Nifty witnessed a fall of approx 894 points (10.11%) during this period.
9. 2009 again witnessed a U year with a gain of a meagre 7.91%, lowest gain so far.
10. To sum-it-up, the pattern followed so far has been D U D 10U D U ??? ... what is next remains to be witnessed. Is it a repitition of the first years i.e. D, or a continuation of the 10 years prior ? With such a no-logic matrix, answering this is a difficult task.
11. One significant point not to be ignored here is the fact that in all these 10 years when Nifty rallied (1998-2007) the year 2006 had witnessed the lowest gain of approx 10%. Following year 2007 we witnessed a rally of 48%.
12. The year 2009 has so far been the year of minimum gain with just 8% upside. Hence, I look forward to a major trend in any direction this Oct 2010 to Jan 2011.
Thus, all facts taken into account, Jan 2011 may witness 8600 or more (approx. 40% from the low of first week) or 3750 or less(again, 40% from the high of first week in Oct 2010).
Safe and Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
1. This time the study gets divided into 2 parts - a) oct - nov/dec (where on certain years nifty retraced in mid period), and b) oct - jan ( every year since 1995)
2. In the period Oct - Nov (first week), Nifty retraced/tanked in 1997-1998-1999-2002-2005-2009-??. Here, if I check the logical pattern of D, it is 3D every year till 1999, 2D every 3rd year, 1D 4th year in 2009 ... does that mean 0D in 5th year i.e. 2015 ? If so, we can conclude that Nov 2010 will see no retracement if Nifty continues to respect logical pattern. However, there was neither any significant upside during this period on the U years. Thus, Nifty should be sluggish this year too.
3. From the above, we can also conclude that Nifty will not retrace during this period for another 5 years or more ... a non-imperative observation as on date.
4. Coming to the Oct - Jan period, 1995 (Oct.'95 - Jan.'96) was a D year where Nifty retraced 22% approx. from high of 1044 in first week of Oct.
5. The next year 1996 was a U, where Nifty rallied 188 points approx from 898 low in Oct first week.
6. Year 1997, we witnessed a D again, this time Nifty tanked 13.67% from a high of 1192 in Oct end to 1029 in Jan first week.
7. 1998 onwards, every year for the next 10 years, Nifty rallied during this period. The maximum upside so far was in 2007 when it gained 48.29% from a low of 4837 in Oct 2007 to 6357 in Jan 2010. To be noted here, is that this was the all-time high on Nifty till date.
8. In the year 2008, Nifty witnessed a fall of approx 894 points (10.11%) during this period.
9. 2009 again witnessed a U year with a gain of a meagre 7.91%, lowest gain so far.
10. To sum-it-up, the pattern followed so far has been D U D 10U D U ??? ... what is next remains to be witnessed. Is it a repitition of the first years i.e. D, or a continuation of the 10 years prior ? With such a no-logic matrix, answering this is a difficult task.
11. One significant point not to be ignored here is the fact that in all these 10 years when Nifty rallied (1998-2007) the year 2006 had witnessed the lowest gain of approx 10%. Following year 2007 we witnessed a rally of 48%.
12. The year 2009 has so far been the year of minimum gain with just 8% upside. Hence, I look forward to a major trend in any direction this Oct 2010 to Jan 2011.
Thus, all facts taken into account, Jan 2011 may witness 8600 or more (approx. 40% from the low of first week) or 3750 or less(again, 40% from the high of first week in Oct 2010).
Safe and Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Monday, August 2, 2010
Empirical study of Nifty for the period Aug - Oct
In continuation to my previous post on empirical study of Nifty for April to July, I studied Nifty again - this time from July end to Oct (mid - end) for the past 15 yrs. Below, I present my observation of the weekly charts from 1995 to 2009 ...
1. In the year 1995, Nifty rallied from a low of 1009 to make a high of 1042, a net gain of approx 3.25% For convenience I call this year an "U" or upside year.
2. From 1996 - 1998, every year, in the period Aug to Oct, Nifty dipped. The maximum it pared was in 1996, from a high of 1127 in july last week to a low of 850 sometime in the second week of Oct that year. Hence, these years were a "D" or downside years.
3. The year 1999, again witnessed an upside rally of approx 196 points on the index from a low of 1303 to a high of 1499 in the second last week of Oct. An "U" or upside year again.
4. The years 2000 - 2002 again witnessed Nifty to tank each year during the study period. In the years 2000 and 2001, Nifty tanked approx 20.7% each, whereas, the year 2002 witnessed Nifty loosing the minimum loss in all these 15 yrs., a meagre 4.5%
5. Thus, we have a pattern of one year "U" and 3 years "D" from 1995 - 2002. In continuation, we had an "U" upside year in 2003. And this year saw the maximum gain of approx 35% from a low of 1165 to 1574 high in Oct that year.
6. To continue the trend, Nifty was to tank in the years 2004 - 2006. Contrary to the trend, Nifty gained all these 3 years followed by a gain in 2007 as well. Hence, now we have 4 "U" since the logical pattern of 1:3 U-D broke.
7. Coming to year 2008, Nifty witnessed a max loss of more than 50% (high of 4539 to a low of 2253) during the period. Blame it on the bubble burst aand call it a "D"
8. Last year, in 2009, Nifty rallied almost 760 pts. making it a "U" year.
9. Thus look at the pattern again, we had a one "U", followed by 3 "D", again one "U", followed by 3 "D". So far the pattern was complete. To note here is that the last year of the pattern was the minimum loss year.
10. Further, we witnessed a "U" with maximum gain, and the trend changed altogether. The pattern that followed was 4 "U", one "D", and one "U" so far.
11. Are we going to witness a "U" for another 3 years starting from 2010 to continue the pattern ?? Also, I wonder if there is a co-relation in the fact that the min loss and max gain came in the consecutive years. If the case is true, then 2008 was a max loss year, so was 2009 a min gain year ??
12. In both cases, if Nifty follows the trend/pattern, it will be an "U" year in 2010 from Aug to Oct and Nifty rally should be equal to or more than 17% (gained in 2009).
To conclude, if the pattern is honoured, Nifty should gain approx 900 or more pts by Oct this year from the low of 5349 in last week of July '10, which gives a target of 6258 or more on Nifty.
Trade well, trade safe !!!!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
1. In the year 1995, Nifty rallied from a low of 1009 to make a high of 1042, a net gain of approx 3.25% For convenience I call this year an "U" or upside year.
2. From 1996 - 1998, every year, in the period Aug to Oct, Nifty dipped. The maximum it pared was in 1996, from a high of 1127 in july last week to a low of 850 sometime in the second week of Oct that year. Hence, these years were a "D" or downside years.
3. The year 1999, again witnessed an upside rally of approx 196 points on the index from a low of 1303 to a high of 1499 in the second last week of Oct. An "U" or upside year again.
4. The years 2000 - 2002 again witnessed Nifty to tank each year during the study period. In the years 2000 and 2001, Nifty tanked approx 20.7% each, whereas, the year 2002 witnessed Nifty loosing the minimum loss in all these 15 yrs., a meagre 4.5%
5. Thus, we have a pattern of one year "U" and 3 years "D" from 1995 - 2002. In continuation, we had an "U" upside year in 2003. And this year saw the maximum gain of approx 35% from a low of 1165 to 1574 high in Oct that year.
6. To continue the trend, Nifty was to tank in the years 2004 - 2006. Contrary to the trend, Nifty gained all these 3 years followed by a gain in 2007 as well. Hence, now we have 4 "U" since the logical pattern of 1:3 U-D broke.
7. Coming to year 2008, Nifty witnessed a max loss of more than 50% (high of 4539 to a low of 2253) during the period. Blame it on the bubble burst aand call it a "D"
8. Last year, in 2009, Nifty rallied almost 760 pts. making it a "U" year.
9. Thus look at the pattern again, we had a one "U", followed by 3 "D", again one "U", followed by 3 "D". So far the pattern was complete. To note here is that the last year of the pattern was the minimum loss year.
10. Further, we witnessed a "U" with maximum gain, and the trend changed altogether. The pattern that followed was 4 "U", one "D", and one "U" so far.
11. Are we going to witness a "U" for another 3 years starting from 2010 to continue the pattern ?? Also, I wonder if there is a co-relation in the fact that the min loss and max gain came in the consecutive years. If the case is true, then 2008 was a max loss year, so was 2009 a min gain year ??
12. In both cases, if Nifty follows the trend/pattern, it will be an "U" year in 2010 from Aug to Oct and Nifty rally should be equal to or more than 17% (gained in 2009).
To conclude, if the pattern is honoured, Nifty should gain approx 900 or more pts by Oct this year from the low of 5349 in last week of July '10, which gives a target of 6258 or more on Nifty.
Trade well, trade safe !!!!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Empirical view on Nifty - period May - July
A friend recently told me that markets tumble in May and recover on early monsoons. This is the usual sentiment amongst all. To confirm, I went back to read the charts of Nifty for the past 15 yrs. What follows is my observation of the weekly charts for the period May to July, 1995 till date ...
1. From 1995 to 1999, Nifty followed a cyclical trend of falling every alternate year and rallying in the next.
2. However, where Nifty should have tanked in May 2000, it rallied instead. It did not follow the preceeding trend, and made way for the begining of a new cycle. I believe the "Macro" reason being, that Nifty futures were launched in June 2000. Also with the introduction of online trading platforms and huge FII inflows, the markets showed an upside of approx 30% in just 2 months time.
3. This new cycle that began in the new millenium did not last long. In the year 2002, conventionally we were to witness a rally. Instead, Nifty retraced about 15%. The big events that preceeded this fall were suspension of UTIs US-64 in 2001 and VSNL disinvestment in Feb 2002.
4. Since 2002, Nifty followed the rule of falling and rallying alternate years religiously.
Also, no established link between the percentage of gain/loss was found in the markets per se. The maximum that Nifty has rallied upside in these 3 months was approx 38% in the year 1999. Later, the KP scam was associated with the period 1999-2001. Since then, the 35% approx upside seen in period May - July 2009, has been the highest.
The maximum flipside was however approx 28% in May - July 2008, post the credit bubble burst associated lower circuit of Jan 2008.
Coming back to 2010, this year, if the trend continues, is a bear/retracement phase. So far Nifty has retraced about 8.25% from the high of 5279 in early May this year. How far it will retrace is yet to be determined. But how soon it will recover and resume the bull-run is anybody's guess !!!
Trade well, trade safe !!!!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
1. From 1995 to 1999, Nifty followed a cyclical trend of falling every alternate year and rallying in the next.
2. However, where Nifty should have tanked in May 2000, it rallied instead. It did not follow the preceeding trend, and made way for the begining of a new cycle. I believe the "Macro" reason being, that Nifty futures were launched in June 2000. Also with the introduction of online trading platforms and huge FII inflows, the markets showed an upside of approx 30% in just 2 months time.
3. This new cycle that began in the new millenium did not last long. In the year 2002, conventionally we were to witness a rally. Instead, Nifty retraced about 15%. The big events that preceeded this fall were suspension of UTIs US-64 in 2001 and VSNL disinvestment in Feb 2002.
4. Since 2002, Nifty followed the rule of falling and rallying alternate years religiously.
Also, no established link between the percentage of gain/loss was found in the markets per se. The maximum that Nifty has rallied upside in these 3 months was approx 38% in the year 1999. Later, the KP scam was associated with the period 1999-2001. Since then, the 35% approx upside seen in period May - July 2009, has been the highest.
The maximum flipside was however approx 28% in May - July 2008, post the credit bubble burst associated lower circuit of Jan 2008.
Coming back to 2010, this year, if the trend continues, is a bear/retracement phase. So far Nifty has retraced about 8.25% from the high of 5279 in early May this year. How far it will retrace is yet to be determined. But how soon it will recover and resume the bull-run is anybody's guess !!!
Trade well, trade safe !!!!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
R-PowerFUL !!!
If we see the daily chart of Rpower (time frame - 9 months), it has made an inverted HnS (Head and Shoulder) pattern. A close today at 159.30, way above the break-out point at 155.50 approx, supported by higher than avg volumes confirms the pattern.
Daily momentum indicators, RSI and Stochastics are positively diverged, whereas MacdH is exhibiting strength.
On the weekly charts, above 153, Rpower has breached a 6 month long trendline, which also looks like an inverted HnS pattern co-incidentally. Again supported by strong and positive RSI, and MacdH. Though Stochastics is slightly in the OB zone, yet is positively diverged.
The target as per the inverted HnS patterns on daily as well as weekly come to around 187-190. Time frame should be approx 2 months.
Accumulate the stock for a target of 187-190. Happy trading !!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Daily momentum indicators, RSI and Stochastics are positively diverged, whereas MacdH is exhibiting strength.
On the weekly charts, above 153, Rpower has breached a 6 month long trendline, which also looks like an inverted HnS pattern co-incidentally. Again supported by strong and positive RSI, and MacdH. Though Stochastics is slightly in the OB zone, yet is positively diverged.
The target as per the inverted HnS patterns on daily as well as weekly come to around 187-190. Time frame should be approx 2 months.
Accumulate the stock for a target of 187-190. Happy trading !!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Nifty fatigued !!!
A bearish engulfing candle on Bank Nifty EOD. RSI and Stochastics on Bank Nifty are on the verge of giving negative divergence. MacdH looking exhausted.
A doji on Nifty EOD, suggesting indecisiveness. Exhausted momentum indicators trading in the OB zone, higher volumes.
Individually, majority FnO stocks exhibitng weakness.
To sum it all, it seems like its time to unwind longs and short sell at the first visible sign of weakness. Downside, we may witness 5230 levels again.
Happy Trading !!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
A doji on Nifty EOD, suggesting indecisiveness. Exhausted momentum indicators trading in the OB zone, higher volumes.
Individually, majority FnO stocks exhibitng weakness.
To sum it all, it seems like its time to unwind longs and short sell at the first visible sign of weakness. Downside, we may witness 5230 levels again.
Happy Trading !!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
A rising market on diminshing volumes !!
Looking at the weekly charts of Nifty, for a macro picture of the stock markets, it seems like Nifty is moving in rising channels of varying degrees.
Momentum indicators looking positive, individually stocks are giving break-outs with heavy volumes to support, all hunky-dory so far.
But, a closer look at the volumes on Nifty indicate a continuous decline. Hence, here we have "A rising market on diminshing volumes !!!!"
Studying past 10 yrs data of the weekly charts of Nifty, it can be concluded that higher the volumes, bigger is the gain on the index, or vice-versa, the higher the decline in volumes, the bigger the loss.
So far, my eye could not detect any mismatch in this relation between the volumes and index. It has always followed the rule of gaining on rising volumes and losing value on diminishing volumes.
Coming back to near-term, Nifty has strong mutiple resistances coming up at 5250-5365-5440. With the trend of diminishing volumes, I wonder if Nifty will manage to breach all or even sustain the existing !!
Trade Safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Momentum indicators looking positive, individually stocks are giving break-outs with heavy volumes to support, all hunky-dory so far.
But, a closer look at the volumes on Nifty indicate a continuous decline. Hence, here we have "A rising market on diminshing volumes !!!!"
Studying past 10 yrs data of the weekly charts of Nifty, it can be concluded that higher the volumes, bigger is the gain on the index, or vice-versa, the higher the decline in volumes, the bigger the loss.
So far, my eye could not detect any mismatch in this relation between the volumes and index. It has always followed the rule of gaining on rising volumes and losing value on diminishing volumes.
Coming back to near-term, Nifty has strong mutiple resistances coming up at 5250-5365-5440. With the trend of diminishing volumes, I wonder if Nifty will manage to breach all or even sustain the existing !!
Trade Safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
SCI - The perfect bRIDE
One look at SCIs daily chart and it looks a perfect buy from each and every perception.
To initiate, it breached the 154-155 barrier today, supported by heavy volumes. 154-155 has been a multiple top resistance in the past one month.
Add to it, the 20 and 50 EMAs have converged positively, along with momentum indicators, MacdH Rsi and stochastics showing significant strength.
On a broader time frame of 9 months, SCI seems to be making higher lows and higher highs consistently, thus giving a tgt of 190-195, if the trend continues.
Weekly charts suggesting that price action, moving avgs, supporting indicators, all exhibiting strength, along with higher volumes.
Also, on the EOD chart, SCI has given a breakout after making an inverted HnS pattern which sets for an immediate tgt of 175.
So, if one has to go long at around 155-158, for an immediate tgt of 170 and a longer term tgt of 190, SCI seems like a sound trade.
Happy Investing !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
To initiate, it breached the 154-155 barrier today, supported by heavy volumes. 154-155 has been a multiple top resistance in the past one month.
Add to it, the 20 and 50 EMAs have converged positively, along with momentum indicators, MacdH Rsi and stochastics showing significant strength.
On a broader time frame of 9 months, SCI seems to be making higher lows and higher highs consistently, thus giving a tgt of 190-195, if the trend continues.
Weekly charts suggesting that price action, moving avgs, supporting indicators, all exhibiting strength, along with higher volumes.
Also, on the EOD chart, SCI has given a breakout after making an inverted HnS pattern which sets for an immediate tgt of 175.
So, if one has to go long at around 155-158, for an immediate tgt of 170 and a longer term tgt of 190, SCI seems like a sound trade.
Happy Investing !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Smooth sailing for Aban !!
A bullish engulfing candle on the EOD chart of Aban Offshore subsequent to a correction, makes it a strong buy contender.
20 and 50 EMAs are all set for a positive cross-over, so is Macdh. Rsi has found support at a month and half old trendline and is positively diverged. Slow as well as fast Stochastics are in an upswing as well.
Additionally, a higher high and higher low, again affirms the uptrend.
At 1240-1250, accumulating the stock with an immediate tgt of 1380, and an intermediate tgt of 1465, seems like a promising pick.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
20 and 50 EMAs are all set for a positive cross-over, so is Macdh. Rsi has found support at a month and half old trendline and is positively diverged. Slow as well as fast Stochastics are in an upswing as well.
Additionally, a higher high and higher low, again affirms the uptrend.
At 1240-1250, accumulating the stock with an immediate tgt of 1380, and an intermediate tgt of 1465, seems like a promising pick.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Friday, March 5, 2010
Bankex - a preview !!
On EOD charts bank nifty has made a doji - suggesting an indecisiveness of trend. However, if we take a broader horizon, at 9038 bank nifty has closed a little below a 6 month old trendline.
The daily momentum indicators are looking at peak, with stochastics and MacdH in the OB zone. Add to it, the price candle has moved away from its 5 EMA. Thus, it wouldnt be surprising to see bank nifty correct to refresh the indicators.
If on closing basis, bank nifty manages to breach this trendline and its prev days high of 9095, the tgt to look out for will be 10k or above.
However, if this resistance is not broken, bank nifty may keep moving in the channel it is currently in with a downside support at approx 8150-8200 and upside at 9000-9050.
Looking at the weekly charts, and the strength the momentum indicators, moving avgs and price aaction is indicating, it seems likely that bank nifty will manage to break this resistance and reach its prev all-time high.
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
The daily momentum indicators are looking at peak, with stochastics and MacdH in the OB zone. Add to it, the price candle has moved away from its 5 EMA. Thus, it wouldnt be surprising to see bank nifty correct to refresh the indicators.
If on closing basis, bank nifty manages to breach this trendline and its prev days high of 9095, the tgt to look out for will be 10k or above.
However, if this resistance is not broken, bank nifty may keep moving in the channel it is currently in with a downside support at approx 8150-8200 and upside at 9000-9050.
Looking at the weekly charts, and the strength the momentum indicators, moving avgs and price aaction is indicating, it seems likely that bank nifty will manage to break this resistance and reach its prev all-time high.
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Union Budget 2010 - An Insight !!
Friday, 26th Feb., FM Pranab Mukherjee presented the Union Budget 2010. When Mr Mukherjee started off the budget speech, he mentioned that the key challenges that govt is facing are, one, that of GDP growth, to sustain the 9% expected growth and overcome the "double digit barrier". And, two, food inflation that has gripped the economy in recent times.
Sounded promising... But as we go ahead to read the complete budget, I think both the key issues have lost ground somewhere.
Firstly, food inflation. With a hike in fuel prices, hike in excise duty of large vehicles, I believe that transport will be dearer. Despite several incentives given to farmers like raising ECBs for cold storage, extending the repayment of farming loans by 6 months, etc., I doubt if this dearer transport will not hit food transport as well. Not only the common man bt also the farmers will be affected here.
Add to it, PDS was reduced to the tune of 400+ Cr. The most imp measure to ensure food security not given its due importance ?
Minimum value of minimum tax slab was maintained at 1.6 lacs, how does a common man get relief from the existing and the expected rising food inflation ?
Coming to GDP, with ad valorem component of excise duty increased in all non-petroleum, and excise duty, basic duty increased petrol and diesel, it will hit the manufacturing costs, thereby, making them dearer and affecting demand.
Though a major part of allocation was provided for infrastructure, which is a major factor of economic growth, I doubt if a common man will enjoy this growth as much in the wake inflation touching new highs !!!
I rest my views here. Happy holi to all !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Sounded promising... But as we go ahead to read the complete budget, I think both the key issues have lost ground somewhere.
Firstly, food inflation. With a hike in fuel prices, hike in excise duty of large vehicles, I believe that transport will be dearer. Despite several incentives given to farmers like raising ECBs for cold storage, extending the repayment of farming loans by 6 months, etc., I doubt if this dearer transport will not hit food transport as well. Not only the common man bt also the farmers will be affected here.
Add to it, PDS was reduced to the tune of 400+ Cr. The most imp measure to ensure food security not given its due importance ?
Minimum value of minimum tax slab was maintained at 1.6 lacs, how does a common man get relief from the existing and the expected rising food inflation ?
Coming to GDP, with ad valorem component of excise duty increased in all non-petroleum, and excise duty, basic duty increased petrol and diesel, it will hit the manufacturing costs, thereby, making them dearer and affecting demand.
Though a major part of allocation was provided for infrastructure, which is a major factor of economic growth, I doubt if a common man will enjoy this growth as much in the wake inflation touching new highs !!!
I rest my views here. Happy holi to all !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Friday, February 19, 2010
The dark horse - Glenmark Pharma !!
On EOD charts, Glenmark pharma is on the verge of giving a trendline breakout above 263.
A surge in volumes, positive divergence of Stochastics. Macdh and Rsi is the positive terrain. This apart, its 5 Ema and 20 Ema have intersected todays price candle, almost prepared to give a positive convergence.
On the weekly charts, Glenmark had given a breakout from a wedge-pattern at around 260 earlier this year, giving a tgt of 450-460 levels.
If glenmark manages to trade and close above 263 in the coming trading session, one can go long for a tgt of 450, stop at 234, the time frame being 6 months.
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
A surge in volumes, positive divergence of Stochastics. Macdh and Rsi is the positive terrain. This apart, its 5 Ema and 20 Ema have intersected todays price candle, almost prepared to give a positive convergence.
On the weekly charts, Glenmark had given a breakout from a wedge-pattern at around 260 earlier this year, giving a tgt of 450-460 levels.
If glenmark manages to trade and close above 263 in the coming trading session, one can go long for a tgt of 450, stop at 234, the time frame being 6 months.
Happy Investing !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Icici Bank
Icici on its EOD charts has made doji candle, suggesting an undecisiveness of further trend. A closer look at it indicates that at todays high, of 853, it may have found resistance at a 6 month old trendline that was initially a support.
Looking at the volumes, it seems unlikely that Icici Bank will find it easy to breach this trendline. Also, considering that the tgt for the breakdown initiated on 27/01/2010 is 675 approx., it seems like icici will not be able to breach todays high in the coming trading session.
Bank Nifty on its EOD charts has formed a doji, again suggesting undecisiveness of trends.
All the pieces put together, one can consider selling Icici bank at around 840 levels for a tgt of 685-690, with a stop at 876, trailing aptly to lock in profits at regular dips.
Trade Safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Looking at the volumes, it seems unlikely that Icici Bank will find it easy to breach this trendline. Also, considering that the tgt for the breakdown initiated on 27/01/2010 is 675 approx., it seems like icici will not be able to breach todays high in the coming trading session.
Bank Nifty on its EOD charts has formed a doji, again suggesting undecisiveness of trends.
All the pieces put together, one can consider selling Icici bank at around 840 levels for a tgt of 685-690, with a stop at 876, trailing aptly to lock in profits at regular dips.
Trade Safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Recovery ?
Though slow and steady, the growth on EOD charts of Nifty cannot be disregarded. But yet, there has been little or no rise in the volumes since 8th feb when it last made a low of 4675, indicating non-participation on buying front.
However, the momentum indicators are all set to converge into positive terrain. Nifty trading close below its 13 EMA at 4853, where it may find resistance.
Bank Nifty is also trading close below its 13 EMA, which is approx 8465.
Above 4860, Nifty may test 4915 in the coming session. However, below 4795, we may witness 4739.
Looking at lesser volumes, downside seems more likely. But on the other hand, considering stock futures individually, majority of them exhibiting strength, upside cannot be ruled out completely.
Unless there is participation in the market, the inclination remains negative. Trade safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
However, the momentum indicators are all set to converge into positive terrain. Nifty trading close below its 13 EMA at 4853, where it may find resistance.
Bank Nifty is also trading close below its 13 EMA, which is approx 8465.
Above 4860, Nifty may test 4915 in the coming session. However, below 4795, we may witness 4739.
Looking at lesser volumes, downside seems more likely. But on the other hand, considering stock futures individually, majority of them exhibiting strength, upside cannot be ruled out completely.
Unless there is participation in the market, the inclination remains negative. Trade safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Niftymageddon !!
Almost across the board we witnessed a short covering on improved forecasts of GDP nos. But, alongwith comes fears that it may lead to unwinding of the fiscal stimuli. Net effect is undecisiveness over further trends, which is precisely what Nifty EOD charts exemplify today.
Nifty on its daily charts has made a long legged doji, suggesting this undecisiveness. Momentum indicators exhibiting an exhaustion, but exhaustion of trend or an exhaustion to prepare itself for a further fall, remains an unanswered question to me.
However, the volumes are not promising so far... Thus making me doubtful about the potency of the short-coverings we witnessed today on intra levels.
To conclude, the short term tgt of Nifty remains at 4200, whereas for intraday the levels to watch out for would be, below 4755, we may witness 4675-4635. On the upside, above 4774, nifty may test 4791-4828.
The boat sails best in the direction of the wind... Trade well !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Nifty on its daily charts has made a long legged doji, suggesting this undecisiveness. Momentum indicators exhibiting an exhaustion, but exhaustion of trend or an exhaustion to prepare itself for a further fall, remains an unanswered question to me.
However, the volumes are not promising so far... Thus making me doubtful about the potency of the short-coverings we witnessed today on intra levels.
To conclude, the short term tgt of Nifty remains at 4200, whereas for intraday the levels to watch out for would be, below 4755, we may witness 4675-4635. On the upside, above 4774, nifty may test 4791-4828.
The boat sails best in the direction of the wind... Trade well !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Weakness galore !!!
On EOD charts, stock derivatives price candles have drifted away from their 5 EMA. MacdH looks tired. Rsi in the OS zone in most cases.
Nifty looking weak further on EOD as well as weekly charts. The short term tgt for Nifty can be further trailed down from 4550-4600 to 4200 levels. And 7200 levels for Bank Nifty.
However, taking into account the exhaustion of momentum indicators, a breather cannot be ruled out here. Though stocks looking attractive here, bottom fishing may lead to bottle necks.
Intraday, below 4713, it may test 4611. On the upside, it may test 4805, above 4757. Coming session could be choppy, cautious trading in case of pull backs... Happy Trading !!
The Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Nifty looking weak further on EOD as well as weekly charts. The short term tgt for Nifty can be further trailed down from 4550-4600 to 4200 levels. And 7200 levels for Bank Nifty.
However, taking into account the exhaustion of momentum indicators, a breather cannot be ruled out here. Though stocks looking attractive here, bottom fishing may lead to bottle necks.
Intraday, below 4713, it may test 4611. On the upside, it may test 4805, above 4757. Coming session could be choppy, cautious trading in case of pull backs... Happy Trading !!
The Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Bearish signals !!
It was an inside day for Nifty today. Low on volumes, momentum indicators RSI and Stochastics, which were showing signs of recovery yesterday have given a negative divergence. MacdH, though already in the negative terrain, showing signs of further weakness.
To support the negativity on Nifty EOD, frontline stock futures alongwith Bank Nifty are also exhibiting weakness on their daily charts.
Short term target for Bank Nifty should be approx 7550-7650, and Nifty 4550-4600.
For intraday, if Nifty manages to break 4830, we may witness 4770, below which it may test 4620 levels. Range for Nifty should be approx 4875-4775.
Trading with a negative bias will be comfortable. Trade Safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
To support the negativity on Nifty EOD, frontline stock futures alongwith Bank Nifty are also exhibiting weakness on their daily charts.
Short term target for Bank Nifty should be approx 7550-7650, and Nifty 4550-4600.
For intraday, if Nifty manages to break 4830, we may witness 4770, below which it may test 4620 levels. Range for Nifty should be approx 4875-4775.
Trading with a negative bias will be comfortable. Trade Safe !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Breather !!
Although Nifty recovered a good over-100 pts today, raising optimism that we may witness a pre-budget rally, it seems unlikely that it is anything more than a "breather" i.e. recovery after a huge fall and a preparation to witness a further fall.
On daily, momentum indicators like RSI, Stochastics, MacdH are showing signs of recovery, however, on weekly charts, they are far from exhibiting strength. Add to it, the volumes are not promising so far. Thus, it does not seem like this breather will manage to turn into a bull rally.
As per the breakdown seen on 25 Jan 2010, the target for nifty is approx 4550. From 5100, it was unlikely that Nifty would sink in a single stroke. Hence, this breather.
To sum it up, it seems like the short-term target for Nifty should be 4550-4575. However, for intraday, Nifty should trade in the range of 4920-4795.
Trading with a negative bias would be comfortable. However, it will be apt to blow with the winds. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
On daily, momentum indicators like RSI, Stochastics, MacdH are showing signs of recovery, however, on weekly charts, they are far from exhibiting strength. Add to it, the volumes are not promising so far. Thus, it does not seem like this breather will manage to turn into a bull rally.
As per the breakdown seen on 25 Jan 2010, the target for nifty is approx 4550. From 5100, it was unlikely that Nifty would sink in a single stroke. Hence, this breather.
To sum it up, it seems like the short-term target for Nifty should be 4550-4575. However, for intraday, Nifty should trade in the range of 4920-4795.
Trading with a negative bias would be comfortable. However, it will be apt to blow with the winds. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Short covering !!
A few things that I believe to be noted after todays trade is, one Bank Nifty has almost achieved its tgt of the trendline breakdown at 8262, two the range on Bank Nifty extended to a good 400 pts. in a single session, three the volumes are huge, and last the price candle has drifted away from its 5 EMA on EOD charts...
Also, considering that 8180 is a strong support, the daily momentum indicators look tired and exhausted, we may witness a short covering/consolidation on Bank Nifty. If it manages to stay above 8180, we may witness 8500. Below 8180, Bank Nifty may sink down to 7800 levels or lower.
Coming to Nifty, here again theres an important level to watch out at 4801. MacdH looking tired, Stochastics in the oversold region, volumes heavy.
Not to forget that tomorrow is last thursday of the month, expiry of Jan Fut. All probabilities of witnessing a short covering.
Above 4885, Nifty may test 4937-4955. If it manages to break 4801, we may witness 4600 levels.
Am inclined to believe that we will witness a short covering in the coming session, however, to trade good, we should blow with the winds... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Also, considering that 8180 is a strong support, the daily momentum indicators look tired and exhausted, we may witness a short covering/consolidation on Bank Nifty. If it manages to stay above 8180, we may witness 8500. Below 8180, Bank Nifty may sink down to 7800 levels or lower.
Coming to Nifty, here again theres an important level to watch out at 4801. MacdH looking tired, Stochastics in the oversold region, volumes heavy.
Not to forget that tomorrow is last thursday of the month, expiry of Jan Fut. All probabilities of witnessing a short covering.
Above 4885, Nifty may test 4937-4955. If it manages to break 4801, we may witness 4600 levels.
Am inclined to believe that we will witness a short covering in the coming session, however, to trade good, we should blow with the winds... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Monday, January 25, 2010
A sneak peek on SBI
A double bottom at 2051, triple top at 2375-2385 is what Sbi shows on its charts.
Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH all in the negative zone, mov avgs showing no clue of a recovery or exhaustion of the downtrend, a trendline breakdown on Bank Nifty to lead Sbi to sink faster, all indicate a negative bias on the stock.
If Sbi manages to break this double bottom, at 2050, the next likely support is at 1730. Thats HUGE target !!
Can consider selling Sbi, below 2050 for a target of 1740, stop at 2103 (trailing aptly on dips). Happy Short-Selling !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH all in the negative zone, mov avgs showing no clue of a recovery or exhaustion of the downtrend, a trendline breakdown on Bank Nifty to lead Sbi to sink faster, all indicate a negative bias on the stock.
If Sbi manages to break this double bottom, at 2050, the next likely support is at 1730. Thats HUGE target !!
Can consider selling Sbi, below 2050 for a target of 1740, stop at 2103 (trailing aptly on dips). Happy Short-Selling !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Ebb ....
Theres some good news and some bad news.
The good news is that Nifty today narrowed on its range, made a "doji" (undecisiveness of trend) on the EOD charts, closed and traded all day, almost, above its 6 month old trendline, MacdH showing exhaustion in the downtrend, suggesting that it may find some support here.
The bad news is, Bank Nifty on the other hand, has given a trendline breakdown, to form what seems like an "inverted cup and handle" pattern. MacdH still exhibiting weakness, RSI Stochastics in the negative terrain, gives mew a target of 8200-8250 on bank nifty.
Amongst stock derivatives, except for sugar stocks, almost all stock futures looking weak to neutral on EOD charts, and by itself, sugar stocks are not known to give a pull back on Nifty.
Thus, am inclined towards negative trade for the coming session. The levels to watch out for should be, below 4990, it may test 4937-4883. On the upside, above 5039, we may witness, 5075.
However, it is always best to flow with the tide. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
The good news is that Nifty today narrowed on its range, made a "doji" (undecisiveness of trend) on the EOD charts, closed and traded all day, almost, above its 6 month old trendline, MacdH showing exhaustion in the downtrend, suggesting that it may find some support here.
The bad news is, Bank Nifty on the other hand, has given a trendline breakdown, to form what seems like an "inverted cup and handle" pattern. MacdH still exhibiting weakness, RSI Stochastics in the negative terrain, gives mew a target of 8200-8250 on bank nifty.
Amongst stock derivatives, except for sugar stocks, almost all stock futures looking weak to neutral on EOD charts, and by itself, sugar stocks are not known to give a pull back on Nifty.
Thus, am inclined towards negative trade for the coming session. The levels to watch out for should be, below 4990, it may test 4937-4883. On the upside, above 5039, we may witness, 5075.
However, it is always best to flow with the tide. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Pull Back on Nifty ?
A close above 5000, just above a strong 6 month old trendline, Nifty trading very close to its 20 EMA on weekly basis, very heavy volumes, momentum indicators exhausted, are we gonna witness a pull back from here ?
It wouldnt be surprising to see a pull back. All individual derivative stocks have shown a volume surge at trenlines, suggesting a recovery.
Above 5020, we may test 5070-5084. However, below 5010, it may test its prev low at 4946 again.
Trading with a positive bias will be more comfortable considering the above-said facts.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
It wouldnt be surprising to see a pull back. All individual derivative stocks have shown a volume surge at trenlines, suggesting a recovery.
Above 5020, we may test 5070-5084. However, below 5010, it may test its prev low at 4946 again.
Trading with a positive bias will be more comfortable considering the above-said facts.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
From 21/1/2008 to 21/1/2010
A trendline breakdown, at 5175, followed by immense selling pressure gave way to a free fall in Nifty Fut today. Shedding a good 135 points from its days high of 5207 in a single trade session... it seemed like another 21/1/2008 was in the making. What co-incidence !!!!
After such a free fall, usually we witness a short covering or consolidation, but considering that the heavy weights have also given a trendline breakdown with heavy volumes, bank nifty ripe to witness a further fall, it wouldnt be surprising if we witness another sharp fall in the coming session.
In a single stroke, or smaller multiple strikes, it seems like the next tgt to watch out for is 4990. Lets see how the picture is painted...
Happy Trading!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
After such a free fall, usually we witness a short covering or consolidation, but considering that the heavy weights have also given a trendline breakdown with heavy volumes, bank nifty ripe to witness a further fall, it wouldnt be surprising if we witness another sharp fall in the coming session.
In a single stroke, or smaller multiple strikes, it seems like the next tgt to watch out for is 4990. Lets see how the picture is painted...
Happy Trading!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Support at 5175 or a breakdown ....
With Nifty nearing a strong support region at 5185-5175, banking, auto and steel sectors showing signs of strength, Nifty closing today at 5214, mildly above its 20 EMA on EOD chart, it seems unlikely that it will break 5175 levels in the coming trade session.
The range for Nifty for the coming session should be 5255-5175. If manages to break 5175, it may test 5115.
However, with almost all frontline stocks hovering near their trendline supports, trading with a negative bias would be high risk, unless a breakdown. I would rather wait for a confirmation of further trend and prefer trading stocks.
Maruti, Bharti artl, Hero honda, Tisco look promising for the coming session.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
The range for Nifty for the coming session should be 5255-5175. If manages to break 5175, it may test 5115.
However, with almost all frontline stocks hovering near their trendline supports, trading with a negative bias would be high risk, unless a breakdown. I would rather wait for a confirmation of further trend and prefer trading stocks.
Maruti, Bharti artl, Hero honda, Tisco look promising for the coming session.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Negative cues ...
A "bearish engulfing candle" on the EOD chart of Nifty Spot, 3 n 8 EMAs intersectiong the body of this candle, RSI and stochastics giving a negative divergence, supported by higher volumes, MacdH in the negative zone, seems like a picture perfect sell for the coming session.
This apart, almost all stock derivative (except for banking stocks) are exhibiting weakness.
Nifty Jan fut should trade in the range of 5265-5180 in the coming trade session. Trading with a negative bias will be more comfortable. If Nifty manages to break 5168, the next likely support is at 5121.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
This apart, almost all stock derivative (except for banking stocks) are exhibiting weakness.
Nifty Jan fut should trade in the range of 5265-5180 in the coming trade session. Trading with a negative bias will be more comfortable. If Nifty manages to break 5168, the next likely support is at 5121.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Nifty at 5535 ?
Nifty Jan fut has made a small doji on the EOD charts, the range reducing down to just about 30 pts.
Stochastics has given a positive divergence, and RSI seems like trending upwards, though slightly in the OB zone, MacdH is still showing some lingering sign of weakness.
Although Nifty has confirmed a swing low, by breaching the high of 5248 it made yest., pointing twds a positive trend, what worries me is the EOD chart of Bank Nifty.
On Bank Nifty daily chart, its 5 and 20 EMA have given a negative divergence, MacdH showing the first and strongest sign of weakness, and RSI and Stochastics giving no clue of trend reversal (from negative to positive)
To support, 2 major bank stocks Sbi, and Boi both looking bearish.
Add to it, on the weekly charts Nifty seems like finding some resistance on a year long trendline at approx 5275-5305.
As it has already breached the low of prev candle on weekly charts, I believe that we may witness further corrections fuelled by banking sector.
Below 5262, it may test 5239-5204 on intraday basis.
On the upside however, if Nifty manages to break-free this resistance zone, its next near-term tgt should be 5535, intraday tgt at 5300-5337 above 5268.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Stochastics has given a positive divergence, and RSI seems like trending upwards, though slightly in the OB zone, MacdH is still showing some lingering sign of weakness.
Although Nifty has confirmed a swing low, by breaching the high of 5248 it made yest., pointing twds a positive trend, what worries me is the EOD chart of Bank Nifty.
On Bank Nifty daily chart, its 5 and 20 EMA have given a negative divergence, MacdH showing the first and strongest sign of weakness, and RSI and Stochastics giving no clue of trend reversal (from negative to positive)
To support, 2 major bank stocks Sbi, and Boi both looking bearish.
Add to it, on the weekly charts Nifty seems like finding some resistance on a year long trendline at approx 5275-5305.
As it has already breached the low of prev candle on weekly charts, I believe that we may witness further corrections fuelled by banking sector.
Below 5262, it may test 5239-5204 on intraday basis.
On the upside however, if Nifty manages to break-free this resistance zone, its next near-term tgt should be 5535, intraday tgt at 5300-5337 above 5268.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
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