What came in as a pleasantly surprising news was the GDP data today. At 7.9%, it was way above street expectation of 6.1%, fuelling optimism.
Individually, all constituents of Nifty Derivatives is looking from neutral to bullish. On EOD charts, Nifty Dec is looking bullish, with daily momentum indicators looking like ready for a trend change.
However, yet to confirm an uptrend, Nifty has to trade above todays weighted avg of 5030 on a closing basis. Above 5030, the upside target would be 5072-5106. On the downside, below 5028, Nifty can test 4995-4965.
With the daily momentum indicators still in the negative zone, and the price action in the positive terrain, it is a little too early to predict the trend of the markets. So far, am biased to longs.
Trade well !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Dubai to Dalal Street.
In the wake of the Dubai default fears, Nifty Dec series, on friday opened gap down at 4918, almost a 100 pts down from its prev days close at 5005. The day saw a low of 4801, another 100 pts down from its open.
However, Nifty recovered 145 pts from its low to close at 4946, above its 50 EMA in the noon session.
On EOD charts, the 3 and 13 EMA have given a negative divergence. Daily Momentum indicators, Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH have all given a negative intersection. Total volume on Nifty was 4.26 cr. almost double than the prev. days volume. Any closing below 4914, which is 50 EMA, will be a confirmation of downtrend.
Markets will remain volatile and rumour sentive in the coming week. Below, 4801, Nifty may test 4763, which is 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the current impulse wave.
Above, 4960, it may test 4990 levels, which is 200 EMA on 30 mins intraday chart. Trading with a negative bias will be more comfortable, I believe.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
However, Nifty recovered 145 pts from its low to close at 4946, above its 50 EMA in the noon session.
On EOD charts, the 3 and 13 EMA have given a negative divergence. Daily Momentum indicators, Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH have all given a negative intersection. Total volume on Nifty was 4.26 cr. almost double than the prev. days volume. Any closing below 4914, which is 50 EMA, will be a confirmation of downtrend.
Markets will remain volatile and rumour sentive in the coming week. Below, 4801, Nifty may test 4763, which is 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the current impulse wave.
Above, 4960, it may test 4990 levels, which is 200 EMA on 30 mins intraday chart. Trading with a negative bias will be more comfortable, I believe.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Dubai debt bubble ....
World over today stock exchanges felt tremors on concern over the Dubai debt crisis, and Dalal Street was not spared either.
The "bad" news was, on Wednesday 25/11/2009, the govt of Dubai announced that it will ask the lendors of one of its major flagship firm, Dubai World; a state-run co. venturing into a no. of businesses including realty, logistics, and its realty subsidiary Nakheel, for a "standstill" on estimated debt of around 80 billion dollars, while it restructures the co.
Abu Dhabi, Dubais oil rich neighbour had earlier bailed out the cos debt to the tune of 15 billion dollars approx. via indirect routes of 2 of its major banks. Today, it has commented that it will aid on a "pick and choose" basis, which means that any sort of blanket assistance from Abu Dhabi is unlikely.
Many Indian cos have direct or indirect exposure to Dubai. The ones which do not have, will also be affected because of shaky investor confidence. MSCI index on friday fell a record 4% confirming that Indian Stock markets will not go unaffected in case of a crisis.
Talking about our economy as a whole, a lot of Indians work in Dubai. Confirmation of a crisis may lead to severe job cuts, obviously, also affecting the inward remmitances.
Unless a bail-out, another bubble seems to be on the verge of bursting. Overall, it will be a very shaky week ahead, news and rumour sensitive...
I rest my views here ... Trade safe !!
(Sources: My Iris, The Mint, DNA Money)
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
The "bad" news was, on Wednesday 25/11/2009, the govt of Dubai announced that it will ask the lendors of one of its major flagship firm, Dubai World; a state-run co. venturing into a no. of businesses including realty, logistics, and its realty subsidiary Nakheel, for a "standstill" on estimated debt of around 80 billion dollars, while it restructures the co.
Abu Dhabi, Dubais oil rich neighbour had earlier bailed out the cos debt to the tune of 15 billion dollars approx. via indirect routes of 2 of its major banks. Today, it has commented that it will aid on a "pick and choose" basis, which means that any sort of blanket assistance from Abu Dhabi is unlikely.
Many Indian cos have direct or indirect exposure to Dubai. The ones which do not have, will also be affected because of shaky investor confidence. MSCI index on friday fell a record 4% confirming that Indian Stock markets will not go unaffected in case of a crisis.
Talking about our economy as a whole, a lot of Indians work in Dubai. Confirmation of a crisis may lead to severe job cuts, obviously, also affecting the inward remmitances.
Unless a bail-out, another bubble seems to be on the verge of bursting. Overall, it will be a very shaky week ahead, news and rumour sensitive...
I rest my views here ... Trade safe !!
(Sources: My Iris, The Mint, DNA Money)
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Bharat Forgings - A promising buy candidate
It was an inside day for Spot Nifty, wherein, neither did Nifty breach prev days high of 5113, nor it managed to break its prev days low of 5052. However, Nifty Nov fut. breached the prev days low of 5068 to make a day low of 5050.
For intraday, one can go short below 5070, for a tgt of 5050-5010. Trading with a negative bias seems like a more comfortable idea for tomorrow. However, the intraday momentum indicators alongwith price action will confirm the direction of trade.
On weekly basis, Nifty is still looking strong. On the downside, Nifty should not correct lower than 4950 levels to remain bullish on weekly charts.
Stock wise, I believe that for the coming trading sessions, bharat forgings should show a good upside. The 3 and 13 EMA have given a positive intersection in the body of its candle, with a surge in volumes. The daily momentum indicators RSI, Stochastics have given postive divergence. MacdH will start trading in positive zone in coming trading sessions as well. Likely target should be 310. On weekly charts as well, Bharat Forg. is showing strength.
I rest my views here... Happy Investing !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
For intraday, one can go short below 5070, for a tgt of 5050-5010. Trading with a negative bias seems like a more comfortable idea for tomorrow. However, the intraday momentum indicators alongwith price action will confirm the direction of trade.
On weekly basis, Nifty is still looking strong. On the downside, Nifty should not correct lower than 4950 levels to remain bullish on weekly charts.
Stock wise, I believe that for the coming trading sessions, bharat forgings should show a good upside. The 3 and 13 EMA have given a positive intersection in the body of its candle, with a surge in volumes. The daily momentum indicators RSI, Stochastics have given postive divergence. MacdH will start trading in positive zone in coming trading sessions as well. Likely target should be 310. On weekly charts as well, Bharat Forg. is showing strength.
I rest my views here... Happy Investing !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Positive Break-out...
Nifty Spot, abv 5066 has given a month long trendline breakout, on Daily charts. Momentum indicators, RSI, Stochastics are in positive terrain. MacdH seems like is all ready to turn in favor of bulls.
On weekly charts, Rsi has given a positive intersection, and MacdH and stochastics are already in positive terrain. The price action having breached prev weeks high of 5079.30 has also confirmed the uptrend. Near term tgt is 5298. Above it, it may test 5500 levels.
Cement Sector namely, ACC, Ambuja, Grasim, along with Reliance inds as well as frontline bank stocks like Icici, Axis bank look promising and will lead the expected rally.
I rest my views ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
On weekly charts, Rsi has given a positive intersection, and MacdH and stochastics are already in positive terrain. The price action having breached prev weeks high of 5079.30 has also confirmed the uptrend. Near term tgt is 5298. Above it, it may test 5500 levels.
Cement Sector namely, ACC, Ambuja, Grasim, along with Reliance inds as well as frontline bank stocks like Icici, Axis bank look promising and will lead the expected rally.
I rest my views ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Phyan... ??
Spot Nifty breached prev days low of 5041 and corrected almost 80 pts to make a low of 4963.70. If a fibonacci retracement is taken, from the swing high it made yesterday to the significant low of 4538 made on 3/11/2009, the first level of retracement, which is at approx 76.4% should be at around 4952, which is also the likely low of this week.
However, since most of the Derivative contituents of Nifty are trading in a negative zone, I am inclined to believe that this support may break in coming trading session. If so, Nifty Spot may test a low of 4873, which is 61.8% of the fibonacci retracement, a major support level.
Daily momentum indicators Rsi, MacdH, Stochastics are trading in the negative terrain to confirm the corrective mode.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
However, since most of the Derivative contituents of Nifty are trading in a negative zone, I am inclined to believe that this support may break in coming trading session. If so, Nifty Spot may test a low of 4873, which is 61.8% of the fibonacci retracement, a major support level.
Daily momentum indicators Rsi, MacdH, Stochastics are trading in the negative terrain to confirm the corrective mode.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
On its way up...
Nifty spot made a long legged Doji today on EOD charts. Simply worded, a doji would mean that the bears were strong enough to pull down the market on intraday, but the bulls were stronger to not let the bears win over them, and close higher than the open, though narrowly.
Had this Doji been formed at the bottom of the charts, it would be of higher significance. But in the middle of a rally, I doubt it holds as much importance as the candlestick pattern deserves.
However, on the positive front, MacdH has shown signs of exhaustion, but not weakness. So far, I believe, Nifty is still on a healthy way and very much in uptrend.
I rest my views here... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Had this Doji been formed at the bottom of the charts, it would be of higher significance. But in the middle of a rally, I doubt it holds as much importance as the candlestick pattern deserves.
However, on the positive front, MacdH has shown signs of exhaustion, but not weakness. So far, I believe, Nifty is still on a healthy way and very much in uptrend.
I rest my views here... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Nifty Tales ...
Nifty Fut (Nov series) opened gap up today at 5041 almost 40 pts abv prev close.. Most of the trade session, lacked lustre and was directionless. The range was extremely narrow of just abt 40 pts.
I maintain my view as earlier, that Nifty will either consolidate or correct "mildly" on intraday levels (chances of a major fall are very bleak) because MacdH has shown signs of peaking. Thus, to gain any further strength, on EOD the MacdH ideally must show some sign of exhaustion / negative bar. Once done, I believe Nifty will rally to test its prev. high of 5168. Further, on weekly basis Nifty is strong and also steady. If Nifty maintains the steady growth at the same or higher ROC, this week may see a high of 5190 levels. On the downside, it may test 4950 levels in the week ended 21/11/2009.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
I maintain my view as earlier, that Nifty will either consolidate or correct "mildly" on intraday levels (chances of a major fall are very bleak) because MacdH has shown signs of peaking. Thus, to gain any further strength, on EOD the MacdH ideally must show some sign of exhaustion / negative bar. Once done, I believe Nifty will rally to test its prev. high of 5168. Further, on weekly basis Nifty is strong and also steady. If Nifty maintains the steady growth at the same or higher ROC, this week may see a high of 5190 levels. On the downside, it may test 4950 levels in the week ended 21/11/2009.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Begining of an Impulsive Wave.
With Nifty Spot breaching the high of 11 Nov. which was at 5016.90, though narrowly, it sure seems like its the begining of another impulsive wave.
All the indicators namely, RSI, Stochastics, Williams %, on EOD charts are in the positive terrain, except for MacdH, which indicates that it may be at its peak. Thus, we may witness some kind of narrow range bound trading in the coming week, followed by an upward rally.
On weekly basis, it seems like the indicators are ready to give positive divergences, supported by volumes. More importantly, with the week ending on positive note, a swing low on weekly chart is confirmed, which again suggests a further positive run.
Individual stock-wise, for the coming week, I believe, that ONGC and Axis bank look extremely positive. Above 1211.50, Ongc may test or even surpass its prev swing high of 1277.
Axis bank may test 1035 level once again. Also, if Axis Bank manaages to surpass 1055, which seems very likely as of now looking at its weekly chart, it will give a postive breakout of a 6 month old trendline on the weekly charts. Above 1055, Axis bank may rally upward sharply to test its 52-week high of 1291, or even surpass it.
Happy Investing !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
All the indicators namely, RSI, Stochastics, Williams %, on EOD charts are in the positive terrain, except for MacdH, which indicates that it may be at its peak. Thus, we may witness some kind of narrow range bound trading in the coming week, followed by an upward rally.
On weekly basis, it seems like the indicators are ready to give positive divergences, supported by volumes. More importantly, with the week ending on positive note, a swing low on weekly chart is confirmed, which again suggests a further positive run.
Individual stock-wise, for the coming week, I believe, that ONGC and Axis bank look extremely positive. Above 1211.50, Ongc may test or even surpass its prev swing high of 1277.
Axis bank may test 1035 level once again. Also, if Axis Bank manaages to surpass 1055, which seems very likely as of now looking at its weekly chart, it will give a postive breakout of a 6 month old trendline on the weekly charts. Above 1055, Axis bank may rally upward sharply to test its 52-week high of 1291, or even surpass it.
Happy Investing !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Nifty - No mans land ??
It could have been a day of triumph for the bears, had the IIP data not been anounced at around 12.00 pm. Nifty was on its way down almost 35 pts., when the data was released and Nifty lost its direction. Nifty recovered and went into green, cuz the IIP data at 9.10% was better than the guidance and street expectations which was approx at 7%. However, the higher levels couldnt sustain, and amid high volatility, Nifty tanked 100 pts from its high of 5017 to 4917.
Tomorrow, above 5008, Nifty may test 5039.85 on intraday basis, whereas on the downside, Nifty may test 4853.25 below 4917. With the 5 and 20 EMA given positive crossovers on EOD charts, an upside seems more likely.
Amongst individual stocks, KFA seems promising at 54-55. It is trading above its 200 EMA on daily charts. Its 5, 20 and 50 EMAs have given a positive crossover. On weekly charts, RSI, Stochastics along with MacdH have given positive divergences.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tomorrow, above 5008, Nifty may test 5039.85 on intraday basis, whereas on the downside, Nifty may test 4853.25 below 4917. With the 5 and 20 EMA given positive crossovers on EOD charts, an upside seems more likely.
Amongst individual stocks, KFA seems promising at 54-55. It is trading above its 200 EMA on daily charts. Its 5, 20 and 50 EMAs have given a positive crossover. On weekly charts, RSI, Stochastics along with MacdH have given positive divergences.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The Going gets SOLOw ...
With Nifty breaching its prev day high each day, it is indeed a continuous uptrend. 3,8 and 13 EMAs have given positive crossovers on EOD charts alongwith the confirmation of the trend.
Almost all indicators namely, MacdH, Rsi, stochastics are very much in the positive mode, suggesting that any reversal seems unlikely.
However, many of the individual constituents of Nifty Derivatives, look weak on EOD charts. Aban, Abb, Balrampur chini, Bharti Artl, BRFL, Educomp, HEro Honda, Maruti, IBrealty, Rcom, Sun Tv ... quite a few of them looking exhausted too.
On intraday, below 4850, my intraday tgt would be 4789.50 Upside, Nifty may face resistance at the 200 EMA on 30 mins, which is at 4896. Though, I would be far more comforatble trading on the short side for intraday tomorow.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Almost all indicators namely, MacdH, Rsi, stochastics are very much in the positive mode, suggesting that any reversal seems unlikely.
However, many of the individual constituents of Nifty Derivatives, look weak on EOD charts. Aban, Abb, Balrampur chini, Bharti Artl, BRFL, Educomp, HEro Honda, Maruti, IBrealty, Rcom, Sun Tv ... quite a few of them looking exhausted too.
On intraday, below 4850, my intraday tgt would be 4789.50 Upside, Nifty may face resistance at the 200 EMA on 30 mins, which is at 4896. Though, I would be far more comforatble trading on the short side for intraday tomorow.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
The positive vibes !!
Nifty Spot as well as Nifty Nov fut today, have made a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily charts. After such a sharp downward rally, I believe this hammer suggests that the bulls were able to reject the bears completely plus the bulls were able to push prices even more past the opening price.
Individually, almost all the contituents of Nifty look extremely positive. However, the few stocks that I would be biased to, in the coming trading sessions, are Allahabad Bank, Divislab and Oriental Bank. 3, 8 n 13 alongwith 5 n 20 EMA on daily charts have given a positive crossover in these stocks. This apart, these positive divergences are even more potent because the EMAs have also intersected the price of these stocks.
It sure seems like "happy days are here again" !! Not only one can trade with a positive bias in the coming sessions, also, accumulate stocks for short-term gains.
Signing off on a positive note... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Individually, almost all the contituents of Nifty look extremely positive. However, the few stocks that I would be biased to, in the coming trading sessions, are Allahabad Bank, Divislab and Oriental Bank. 3, 8 n 13 alongwith 5 n 20 EMA on daily charts have given a positive crossover in these stocks. This apart, these positive divergences are even more potent because the EMAs have also intersected the price of these stocks.
It sure seems like "happy days are here again" !! Not only one can trade with a positive bias in the coming sessions, also, accumulate stocks for short-term gains.
Signing off on a positive note... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
The Avalanche
Nifty Nov fut, gave away a little over 200 pts from todays high of 4734, to make a low of 4531.
It breached not just the 4640 levels, but also the 4571 level to confirm the bearish trend on monthly charts as well.
At present Nifty is trading close to the 100 EMA on daily charts. However, it is unlikely that it will find any support there. The next level, below todays low of 4531, to watch out for is 4406, which is at 150 EMA on daily.
Although Nifty is trading in the highly over-sold zone, yet, it would be extremely risky to trade with a positive bias. I believe, that any upside, can only be confirmed after there is any sign of an exhaustion of the downtrend, not earlier.
As of yet, it seems like Nifty is in the correcting mode and will bounce back to rally upside on a longer perspective. But, to accumulate or bottom-fish for stocks, as on date would be a little too risky. I would rather wait for some signs of consolidation before diving in to build up a portfolio.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
It breached not just the 4640 levels, but also the 4571 level to confirm the bearish trend on monthly charts as well.
At present Nifty is trading close to the 100 EMA on daily charts. However, it is unlikely that it will find any support there. The next level, below todays low of 4531, to watch out for is 4406, which is at 150 EMA on daily.
Although Nifty is trading in the highly over-sold zone, yet, it would be extremely risky to trade with a positive bias. I believe, that any upside, can only be confirmed after there is any sign of an exhaustion of the downtrend, not earlier.
As of yet, it seems like Nifty is in the correcting mode and will bounce back to rally upside on a longer perspective. But, to accumulate or bottom-fish for stocks, as on date would be a little too risky. I would rather wait for some signs of consolidation before diving in to build up a portfolio.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
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