Friday was nothing short of a black friday, it so seemed to me.
The day began with Nifty Nov fut series, opening at 4845, and giving hopes that the bulls were strong and becoming stronger as the day went on.
But the optimism didnt last long enough. Soon, 200 EMA on intraday chart, acted as a very strong resistance, nifty made its high for the day and supply was feeded in to the bears. The markets started showing its first signs of weakness.
Thereafter, Nifty didnt seem to find a bottom, it broke the prev days low and tanked 55 pts below its prev days low of 4747.80 It was a huge range for the day, a good 170 pts. Aptly, it could be termed as a bears paradise and a bulls nightmare.
So far, I have not witnessed many trading sessions when the bulls were defeated so badly, almost when they were begining to anticipate and enjoy their win. It seemed like the bears had poisoned the champagne that the bulls were to drink in celebration.
Although Nifty is in the highly oversold zone on the daily charts, and also, trading close to the 20 EMA on weekly, which is 4640, Nifty is very weak on weekly as well as monthly basis. However, below 4640, it may sink down further till 4576. On the monthly charts, below 4571, nifty will break the low of prev candle, confirming the downtrend. Also, it may end up making a bearish engulfing candle, which is as the name suggests a confirmation of bearishness.
On the upside ...... Well, as on date, I am a little disorientated as far as the upside is considered. Only if Nifty takes a support and bounces back from its 20 EMA on weekly, I can comfortably think about the upside.
I rest my views here ... Nice weekend !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Ajab Nifty ki Gazab Kahani ....
Nifty Oct series finally expired today, on a low note. On intraday charts, Nifty Oct opened gap down. Prices moved higher, until resistance and supply was found at the high of the day. The bulls' excursion upward was halted and prices ended the day below the open. Were the bulls testing the powers of the bears only to fight them out tomorrow?
A doji on the daily charts followed by an inverted hammer. Is it an indicator of a reversal? The confirmation of the downtrend being in trouble will only come when todays high which is 4826.55, is breached and sustained. Till then, the fate of the warring bears and bulls is not known...
Indeed, it is Ajab Nifty ki Gazab Kahani .... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
A doji on the daily charts followed by an inverted hammer. Is it an indicator of a reversal? The confirmation of the downtrend being in trouble will only come when todays high which is 4826.55, is breached and sustained. Till then, the fate of the warring bears and bulls is not known...
Indeed, it is Ajab Nifty ki Gazab Kahani .... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
The Deadly Crossover
27th Oct 2009 was a day when the bears butchered everybody who came their way ....
Be it the bulls, hogs or sheep, none were spared by them. A negative crossover on the daily charts soon became a deadly one. Nifty Oct opened below yesterdays low of 4965, at 4960, which acted as a major resistance, and Nifty Oct was unable to surpass it. It tanked almost 125 pts from its high of 4964.
Every minor recovery on intraday charts was followed by an immense selling pressure, thus resulting into a newer low. It made day low of 4838 and closed just about 10 points above it.
Optimistically speaking, Nifty Oct closed near its 50 EMA on daily charts. Thus if it has to find support here, at 50 EMA, it has to trade convincingly above 4859. A close above 4859 tomorrow I believe, will be an indicator to short coverings and fresh longs.
However, on the downside, below 4838, Nifty Oct has support at 4780, which is a swing low on the daily charts, and also a double bottom. Below 4780, I could figure out no support till 4653, which is the 20 EMA on weekly charts.
As some one rightly said, no one can see the right side of the charts. So cant I...
Tomorrow will tell its own tale. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Be it the bulls, hogs or sheep, none were spared by them. A negative crossover on the daily charts soon became a deadly one. Nifty Oct opened below yesterdays low of 4965, at 4960, which acted as a major resistance, and Nifty Oct was unable to surpass it. It tanked almost 125 pts from its high of 4964.
Every minor recovery on intraday charts was followed by an immense selling pressure, thus resulting into a newer low. It made day low of 4838 and closed just about 10 points above it.
Optimistically speaking, Nifty Oct closed near its 50 EMA on daily charts. Thus if it has to find support here, at 50 EMA, it has to trade convincingly above 4859. A close above 4859 tomorrow I believe, will be an indicator to short coverings and fresh longs.
However, on the downside, below 4838, Nifty Oct has support at 4780, which is a swing low on the daily charts, and also a double bottom. Below 4780, I could figure out no support till 4653, which is the 20 EMA on weekly charts.
As some one rightly said, no one can see the right side of the charts. So cant I...
Tomorrow will tell its own tale. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
A birds eye view on Spot Nifty
Today, was a celebration for bears. Spot Nifty tanked a 100 pts. to make a low of 4968, almost 80 pts. below yesterdays low. It was a continuous trend, well predicted, expected and accepted too, thus, I could see no tug of war between the bears and the bulls. It seemed like bulls took the lost battle in their stride and paved way for bears to enjoy their glorious win !!
The close at 4988 did not leave any room for optimism for tomorrow as well. But yet, why do I have a feeling that my friends, the bears are now tired of carrying their shorts further and are thinking of booking their profits, to make way for the bulls to rule the scenario ....
The maximum down side that I can see from here is another 50 pts. i.e. approx. 4920, from where I believe Nifty will bounce back to 5300 levels in the coming trading sessions.
Confessing candidly, I have no technical reason to support what I say and believe, apart from the fact that spot nifty is trading very close to the 20 EMA, from where it may find some support.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
The close at 4988 did not leave any room for optimism for tomorrow as well. But yet, why do I have a feeling that my friends, the bears are now tired of carrying their shorts further and are thinking of booking their profits, to make way for the bulls to rule the scenario ....
The maximum down side that I can see from here is another 50 pts. i.e. approx. 4920, from where I believe Nifty will bounce back to 5300 levels in the coming trading sessions.
Confessing candidly, I have no technical reason to support what I say and believe, apart from the fact that spot nifty is trading very close to the 20 EMA, from where it may find some support.
I rest my views here ... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Has Bharti Airtel bottomed out at 322.60?
Recently, our Indian stock markets witnessed a very sharp fall in many telecom stocks namely, Rcom, Bharti Airtel, Idea cellular, etc. Various reasons ranging from reduced tariffs to allegations of inflated revenues to cancelled merger deals, were cited as the reason for the fall.
Bharti Airtel, for one, lost about 30% in jus about a fortnight and approx 40% in a months time. Now that it is moving in a consolidated phase, within a narrow range, one question that comes to my mind is "Has Bharti Artl bottomed out at 322.60, which was the swing low on 16/10/2009?"
I think "Yes". Have a couple of reasons to think so. For one, after the steep fall, on daily charts, Bharti seems to be in a consolidated phase. Before any major change in a continuing trend, stocks or derivatives mostly go into a phase of lag, where further losses cease, nor any gains are foreseen.
Second, it formed a doji on 16/10/2009, add to it, it was also swing low. Since then, all trading sessions have witnessed a breach of prev days high, a fall in volumes from where the down fall began, which according to me implies that bears have stopped shorting further followed by a marginal increase in volume which I believe is an indicator of short coverings as well as new longs. All compiled suggest a positive trend in the making.
Also, I believe, that Bharti Artl, on a weekly basis, is trading very close to a year long trendline as well as its 200 DMA, which may act as a strong support. This apart, on weekly charts, the MACDh suggests an exhaustion of the down move.
Thus I conclude, if I have to go long in Bharti, my near term tgt for it would be 388.85 with a stop loss placed at 318.25
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Bharti Airtel, for one, lost about 30% in jus about a fortnight and approx 40% in a months time. Now that it is moving in a consolidated phase, within a narrow range, one question that comes to my mind is "Has Bharti Artl bottomed out at 322.60, which was the swing low on 16/10/2009?"
I think "Yes". Have a couple of reasons to think so. For one, after the steep fall, on daily charts, Bharti seems to be in a consolidated phase. Before any major change in a continuing trend, stocks or derivatives mostly go into a phase of lag, where further losses cease, nor any gains are foreseen.
Second, it formed a doji on 16/10/2009, add to it, it was also swing low. Since then, all trading sessions have witnessed a breach of prev days high, a fall in volumes from where the down fall began, which according to me implies that bears have stopped shorting further followed by a marginal increase in volume which I believe is an indicator of short coverings as well as new longs. All compiled suggest a positive trend in the making.
Also, I believe, that Bharti Artl, on a weekly basis, is trading very close to a year long trendline as well as its 200 DMA, which may act as a strong support. This apart, on weekly charts, the MACDh suggests an exhaustion of the down move.
Thus I conclude, if I have to go long in Bharti, my near term tgt for it would be 388.85 with a stop loss placed at 318.25
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
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