A few things that I believe to be noted after todays trade is, one Bank Nifty has almost achieved its tgt of the trendline breakdown at 8262, two the range on Bank Nifty extended to a good 400 pts. in a single session, three the volumes are huge, and last the price candle has drifted away from its 5 EMA on EOD charts...
Also, considering that 8180 is a strong support, the daily momentum indicators look tired and exhausted, we may witness a short covering/consolidation on Bank Nifty. If it manages to stay above 8180, we may witness 8500. Below 8180, Bank Nifty may sink down to 7800 levels or lower.
Coming to Nifty, here again theres an important level to watch out at 4801. MacdH looking tired, Stochastics in the oversold region, volumes heavy.
Not to forget that tomorrow is last thursday of the month, expiry of Jan Fut. All probabilities of witnessing a short covering.
Above 4885, Nifty may test 4937-4955. If it manages to break 4801, we may witness 4600 levels.
Am inclined to believe that we will witness a short covering in the coming session, however, to trade good, we should blow with the winds... Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010
A sneak peek on SBI
A double bottom at 2051, triple top at 2375-2385 is what Sbi shows on its charts.
Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH all in the negative zone, mov avgs showing no clue of a recovery or exhaustion of the downtrend, a trendline breakdown on Bank Nifty to lead Sbi to sink faster, all indicate a negative bias on the stock.
If Sbi manages to break this double bottom, at 2050, the next likely support is at 1730. Thats HUGE target !!
Can consider selling Sbi, below 2050 for a target of 1740, stop at 2103 (trailing aptly on dips). Happy Short-Selling !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Rsi, Stochastics, MacdH all in the negative zone, mov avgs showing no clue of a recovery or exhaustion of the downtrend, a trendline breakdown on Bank Nifty to lead Sbi to sink faster, all indicate a negative bias on the stock.
If Sbi manages to break this double bottom, at 2050, the next likely support is at 1730. Thats HUGE target !!
Can consider selling Sbi, below 2050 for a target of 1740, stop at 2103 (trailing aptly on dips). Happy Short-Selling !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Ebb ....
Theres some good news and some bad news.
The good news is that Nifty today narrowed on its range, made a "doji" (undecisiveness of trend) on the EOD charts, closed and traded all day, almost, above its 6 month old trendline, MacdH showing exhaustion in the downtrend, suggesting that it may find some support here.
The bad news is, Bank Nifty on the other hand, has given a trendline breakdown, to form what seems like an "inverted cup and handle" pattern. MacdH still exhibiting weakness, RSI Stochastics in the negative terrain, gives mew a target of 8200-8250 on bank nifty.
Amongst stock derivatives, except for sugar stocks, almost all stock futures looking weak to neutral on EOD charts, and by itself, sugar stocks are not known to give a pull back on Nifty.
Thus, am inclined towards negative trade for the coming session. The levels to watch out for should be, below 4990, it may test 4937-4883. On the upside, above 5039, we may witness, 5075.
However, it is always best to flow with the tide. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
The good news is that Nifty today narrowed on its range, made a "doji" (undecisiveness of trend) on the EOD charts, closed and traded all day, almost, above its 6 month old trendline, MacdH showing exhaustion in the downtrend, suggesting that it may find some support here.
The bad news is, Bank Nifty on the other hand, has given a trendline breakdown, to form what seems like an "inverted cup and handle" pattern. MacdH still exhibiting weakness, RSI Stochastics in the negative terrain, gives mew a target of 8200-8250 on bank nifty.
Amongst stock derivatives, except for sugar stocks, almost all stock futures looking weak to neutral on EOD charts, and by itself, sugar stocks are not known to give a pull back on Nifty.
Thus, am inclined towards negative trade for the coming session. The levels to watch out for should be, below 4990, it may test 4937-4883. On the upside, above 5039, we may witness, 5075.
However, it is always best to flow with the tide. Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Pull Back on Nifty ?
A close above 5000, just above a strong 6 month old trendline, Nifty trading very close to its 20 EMA on weekly basis, very heavy volumes, momentum indicators exhausted, are we gonna witness a pull back from here ?
It wouldnt be surprising to see a pull back. All individual derivative stocks have shown a volume surge at trenlines, suggesting a recovery.
Above 5020, we may test 5070-5084. However, below 5010, it may test its prev low at 4946 again.
Trading with a positive bias will be more comfortable considering the above-said facts.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
It wouldnt be surprising to see a pull back. All individual derivative stocks have shown a volume surge at trenlines, suggesting a recovery.
Above 5020, we may test 5070-5084. However, below 5010, it may test its prev low at 4946 again.
Trading with a positive bias will be more comfortable considering the above-said facts.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
From 21/1/2008 to 21/1/2010
A trendline breakdown, at 5175, followed by immense selling pressure gave way to a free fall in Nifty Fut today. Shedding a good 135 points from its days high of 5207 in a single trade session... it seemed like another 21/1/2008 was in the making. What co-incidence !!!!
After such a free fall, usually we witness a short covering or consolidation, but considering that the heavy weights have also given a trendline breakdown with heavy volumes, bank nifty ripe to witness a further fall, it wouldnt be surprising if we witness another sharp fall in the coming session.
In a single stroke, or smaller multiple strikes, it seems like the next tgt to watch out for is 4990. Lets see how the picture is painted...
Happy Trading!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
After such a free fall, usually we witness a short covering or consolidation, but considering that the heavy weights have also given a trendline breakdown with heavy volumes, bank nifty ripe to witness a further fall, it wouldnt be surprising if we witness another sharp fall in the coming session.
In a single stroke, or smaller multiple strikes, it seems like the next tgt to watch out for is 4990. Lets see how the picture is painted...
Happy Trading!!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Support at 5175 or a breakdown ....
With Nifty nearing a strong support region at 5185-5175, banking, auto and steel sectors showing signs of strength, Nifty closing today at 5214, mildly above its 20 EMA on EOD chart, it seems unlikely that it will break 5175 levels in the coming trade session.
The range for Nifty for the coming session should be 5255-5175. If manages to break 5175, it may test 5115.
However, with almost all frontline stocks hovering near their trendline supports, trading with a negative bias would be high risk, unless a breakdown. I would rather wait for a confirmation of further trend and prefer trading stocks.
Maruti, Bharti artl, Hero honda, Tisco look promising for the coming session.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
The range for Nifty for the coming session should be 5255-5175. If manages to break 5175, it may test 5115.
However, with almost all frontline stocks hovering near their trendline supports, trading with a negative bias would be high risk, unless a breakdown. I would rather wait for a confirmation of further trend and prefer trading stocks.
Maruti, Bharti artl, Hero honda, Tisco look promising for the coming session.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Negative cues ...
A "bearish engulfing candle" on the EOD chart of Nifty Spot, 3 n 8 EMAs intersectiong the body of this candle, RSI and stochastics giving a negative divergence, supported by higher volumes, MacdH in the negative zone, seems like a picture perfect sell for the coming session.
This apart, almost all stock derivative (except for banking stocks) are exhibiting weakness.
Nifty Jan fut should trade in the range of 5265-5180 in the coming trade session. Trading with a negative bias will be more comfortable. If Nifty manages to break 5168, the next likely support is at 5121.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
This apart, almost all stock derivative (except for banking stocks) are exhibiting weakness.
Nifty Jan fut should trade in the range of 5265-5180 in the coming trade session. Trading with a negative bias will be more comfortable. If Nifty manages to break 5168, the next likely support is at 5121.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Nifty at 5535 ?
Nifty Jan fut has made a small doji on the EOD charts, the range reducing down to just about 30 pts.
Stochastics has given a positive divergence, and RSI seems like trending upwards, though slightly in the OB zone, MacdH is still showing some lingering sign of weakness.
Although Nifty has confirmed a swing low, by breaching the high of 5248 it made yest., pointing twds a positive trend, what worries me is the EOD chart of Bank Nifty.
On Bank Nifty daily chart, its 5 and 20 EMA have given a negative divergence, MacdH showing the first and strongest sign of weakness, and RSI and Stochastics giving no clue of trend reversal (from negative to positive)
To support, 2 major bank stocks Sbi, and Boi both looking bearish.
Add to it, on the weekly charts Nifty seems like finding some resistance on a year long trendline at approx 5275-5305.
As it has already breached the low of prev candle on weekly charts, I believe that we may witness further corrections fuelled by banking sector.
Below 5262, it may test 5239-5204 on intraday basis.
On the upside however, if Nifty manages to break-free this resistance zone, its next near-term tgt should be 5535, intraday tgt at 5300-5337 above 5268.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
Stochastics has given a positive divergence, and RSI seems like trending upwards, though slightly in the OB zone, MacdH is still showing some lingering sign of weakness.
Although Nifty has confirmed a swing low, by breaching the high of 5248 it made yest., pointing twds a positive trend, what worries me is the EOD chart of Bank Nifty.
On Bank Nifty daily chart, its 5 and 20 EMA have given a negative divergence, MacdH showing the first and strongest sign of weakness, and RSI and Stochastics giving no clue of trend reversal (from negative to positive)
To support, 2 major bank stocks Sbi, and Boi both looking bearish.
Add to it, on the weekly charts Nifty seems like finding some resistance on a year long trendline at approx 5275-5305.
As it has already breached the low of prev candle on weekly charts, I believe that we may witness further corrections fuelled by banking sector.
Below 5262, it may test 5239-5204 on intraday basis.
On the upside however, if Nifty manages to break-free this resistance zone, its next near-term tgt should be 5535, intraday tgt at 5300-5337 above 5268.
Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
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