Friday, October 8, 2010

Correction to my prev post - Empirical Study on Nifty for the period Oct - Jan (1995-2009 and beyond)

This evening, one of my friends cum fellow trader, Parasuram Ramaswamy (PR) cross checked the statistics on Nifty and noted that the year 2008 I mentioned in my prev post as a D year was actually a U year. Indeed it was an upside year. I wish to correct the same now, point 8 onwards :

8. The year 2008 and 2009 gained 894 and 410 points respectively. Year 2009 however still remains the year of lowest gain so far, a meagre 7.91%, from Oct to Jan.

9. Now the matrix is D-U-D-12U-??? With this matrix, I believe that the year 2010 is likely to be a U year again.

10. From 1995 to 2006, year 2006 was a year of minimum gain, and the next year 2007 we witnessed the maximum upside so far i.e. 1520 pts / 48.29% approx. from a low of 4837 in the first week of Oct to 6357 in the second week of Jan.

11. In 2009 Nifty rallied only 7.91%. Will it continue to respect the earlier trend of a maximum following a minimum remains to be seen.

12. Thus I can now conclude (please take note of the P.N. here) that Jan 2011 may witness 8600 or more (approx. 40% from the low of first week) if all the logic and pattern made so far is respected.

P.N. Thank you PR for bailing me out of the perplexity wrt to the trend of the markets this coming New Year.




Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
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2 comments:

  1. Dhawal JoshiOctober 10, 2010 at 8:06 PM

    Nice language appreciate your efforts but i have one question please clarify how 8600 arrives in jan 2011.

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  2. POctober 12, 2010 at 10:57 PM

    Thanx Dhawal.

    Heres how 8600 arrives: as mentioned in point 10 above, from 1995 to 2006, 2006 saw the minimum upside. After that 2007 saw an upside of 48%, which was maximum till now.

    So the matrix is maximum following minimum.

    Last year 2009 the upside was even less than 2006, so now from 1995 to 2009, 2009 was minimum gain. Hence, I assume that if the above matrix is respected again, it will gain 40% or more again this year too.

    Hope I was articulate here. Happy Trading !!

    Payal.

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