With Nifty respecting its trend of logical visions so far, I continue with my empirical study, this time for the quarter Oct to Jan for the past 15 years. The observation and conclusion, however, goes beyond 2010 this time. I present the same below :
1. This time the study gets divided into 2 parts - a) oct - nov/dec (where on certain years nifty retraced in mid period), and b) oct - jan ( every year since 1995)
2. In the period Oct - Nov (first week), Nifty retraced/tanked in 1997-1998-1999-2002-2005-2009-??. Here, if I check the logical pattern of D, it is 3D every year till 1999, 2D every 3rd year, 1D 4th year in 2009 ... does that mean 0D in 5th year i.e. 2015 ? If so, we can conclude that Nov 2010 will see no retracement if Nifty continues to respect logical pattern. However, there was neither any significant upside during this period on the U years. Thus, Nifty should be sluggish this year too.
3. From the above, we can also conclude that Nifty will not retrace during this period for another 5 years or more ... a non-imperative observation as on date.
4. Coming to the Oct - Jan period, 1995 (Oct.'95 - Jan.'96) was a D year where Nifty retraced 22% approx. from high of 1044 in first week of Oct.
5. The next year 1996 was a U, where Nifty rallied 188 points approx from 898 low in Oct first week.
6. Year 1997, we witnessed a D again, this time Nifty tanked 13.67% from a high of 1192 in Oct end to 1029 in Jan first week.
7. 1998 onwards, every year for the next 10 years, Nifty rallied during this period. The maximum upside so far was in 2007 when it gained 48.29% from a low of 4837 in Oct 2007 to 6357 in Jan 2010. To be noted here, is that this was the all-time high on Nifty till date.
8. In the year 2008, Nifty witnessed a fall of approx 894 points (10.11%) during this period.
9. 2009 again witnessed a U year with a gain of a meagre 7.91%, lowest gain so far.
10. To sum-it-up, the pattern followed so far has been D U D 10U D U ??? ... what is next remains to be witnessed. Is it a repitition of the first years i.e. D, or a continuation of the 10 years prior ? With such a no-logic matrix, answering this is a difficult task.
11. One significant point not to be ignored here is the fact that in all these 10 years when Nifty rallied (1998-2007) the year 2006 had witnessed the lowest gain of approx 10%. Following year 2007 we witnessed a rally of 48%.
12. The year 2009 has so far been the year of minimum gain with just 8% upside. Hence, I look forward to a major trend in any direction this Oct 2010 to Jan 2011.
Thus, all facts taken into account, Jan 2011 may witness 8600 or more (approx. 40% from the low of first week) or 3750 or less(again, 40% from the high of first week in Oct 2010).
Safe and Happy Trading !!
Disclaimer: The said technical analysis is a perception based on various charting methods. Trades on my opinion are to be done solely at your own discretion.
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